Weakening Cold Front
Wednesday, August 26, 2026 · 5:24 AM
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Low to medium shower and thunderstorm chances return late morning today into Thursday. There is a low chance for a couple of strong storms, especially south of Interstate forty and east of Interstate sixty-five. Main concern will be gusty winds with any storms today. Hot and dry next week with highs in the low to mid nineties. Surface high pressure slides away Humidity surges by afternoon Dew points pushing upper sixties to mid-seventies Southerly flow returning soon Short wave spinning round the ridge Four Corners high holding command Scattered storms along the river Moisture spreading across the land Bulk shear twenty-five knots near Tennessee River Falling to fifteen at Nashville town Convective energy over one thousand Poor lapse rates holding it down STORM CELLS ADVANCING! RIPPLE THROUGH THE BASIN! GUSTY WINDS BARKING! WEAKENING COLD FRONT! Upper level troff digging Great Lakes Pushing a boundary south tonight Shear drops under fifteen knots Marginal forcing takes the flight Severe threat holding near zero Thursday troffing pattern stays Plateau showers linger overnight Before the weekend heat ablaze MARGINAL FORCING! POOR LAPSE RATES! TWENTY KNOT SHEAR! HOLD THE BOUNDARY! STORM CELLS ADVANCING! RIPPLE THROUGH THE BASIN! GUSTY WINDS BARKING! WEAKENING COLD FRONT! RIDGE BUILDS EAST! NINETY-FIVE DEGREES! HOT AND DRY! WEAKENING COLD FRONT!
The forecast discussion
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 518 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026
- Low to medium shower and thunderstorm chances return late morning today into Thursday.
There is a low chance for a couple of strong storms, especially south of I-40 and east of I-65.
- Main concern will be gusty winds with any storms today.
- Hot and dry next week with highs in the low to mid 90s.
SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Thursday Night) Issued at 1050 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026
Surface high pressure has slid off to our northeast but it will continue to influence our weather for the early part of Wednesday.
We will start the day out with the lower humidity but unfortunately the humidity will be returning by the afternoon with dew points pushing into the upper 60s to mid 70s.
A short wave will spin around the upper level ridge set up over the Four Corners Region and that will bring the return of southerly flow.
This short wave will also bring scattered thunderstorms late morning into the afternoon mainly to the west of I-65. Bulk shear near the TN River will be 25 knots falling off to around 15 knots as you approach Nashville.
Afternoon CAPE will make it above 1000 j/kg with overall poor lapse rates.
This will keep the severe threat low but can't rule out gusty winds with any more developed storms near the TN River.
Highs will push into the upper 80s to lower 90s.
An upper level trough digging into the Great Lakes will then push a weakening cold front south Wednesday night into Thursday.
This will bring another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night.
Shear will be under 15 knots and CAPE will be under 500 j/kg with marginal forcing.
This will keep the severe threat near zero.
Additional scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible Thursday afternoon as we remain in a troughing pattern.
Shear will be near 20 knots with around 1000 j/kg but forcing will be marginal at best.
This will keep the severe threat low.
A few showers may linger overnight Thursday over the Plateau, otherwise dry.
LONG TERM
(Friday through next Wednesday) Issued at 1050 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026
Late week into the weekend the strong upper level ridge over the Four Corners Region will start to push east.
This will bring the return of dry weather.
Highs will stay in the upper 80s to lower 90s Friday into the weekend.
The upper level ridge will build east early next week and that will warm highs into the low to mid 90s.
The upper level ridge will linger over the region into the middle part of next week with conditions remaining hot and overall dry.