I Like The Odds
Saturday, August 22, 2026 · 6:10 AM
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Low thunderstorm chances late this afternoon and early evening, primarily across the Plateau. Overall drier with slightly below-normal temperatures this weekend with patchy fog this morning and tomorrow morning. Low to medium rain and storm chances next week with seasonal temperatures. Sun is beating down in the upper eighties now Low nineties creeping, sweating on my brow Mostly clear skies and the winds are light Patchy fog rising as we roll into the night Short-term models saying what I wanna hear Trouble on the wire, baby, bring it near Upper level troffing over continental skies A weak front pushing where the pressure lies Near the border line where the heat gets mean Dirtiest forecast that you ever seen Upper level troffing holding over the east Weak front rolling in to unleash the beast Ten to twenty percent chance, baby, that's my cue Yeah, I like the odds, how about you I like the odds Plateau gets hazy with that early morning fog West side lingering like a heavy swamp dog Isolated thunderstorms popping in the heat Late afternoon storm coming down the street Mid to upper eighties coming Sunday behind the front I'm riding on the edge, yeah I'm hunting for the hunt Upper level troffing over continental skies A weak front pushing where the pressure lies Near the border line where the heat gets mean Dirtiest forecast that you ever seen Upper level troffing holding over the east Weak front rolling in to unleash the beast Ten to twenty percent chance, baby, that's my cue Yeah, I like the odds, how about you I like the odds Ten to twenty percent That's all the chance I need Upper level troffing Let the weak front bleed I like the odds Yeah, I like the odds
The forecast discussion
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 604 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026
- Low thunderstorm chances late this afternoon and early evening, primarily across the Plateau.
- Overall drier with slightly below-normal temperatures this weekend with patchy fog this morning and tomorrow morning.
- Low to medium rain and storm chances next week with seasonal temperatures.
SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Sunday Night) Issued at 1020 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026
Quiet conditions are expected to prevail tonight with the only concern being fog.
Mostly clear skies and light winds will be supportive for fog overnight.
Highest confidence in fog is across the Plateau, and short-term models support this as well with only low probability of 10-20% for fog west of the Plateau.
Upper-level troughing remains in place over the eastern CONUS Saturday, and a weak front will allow for isolated thunderstorms to develop during the afternoon, mainly for areas near the TN/AL border and across the Plateau.
Otherwise, it'll be a fairly nice Saturday with most of the area staying dry and seasonable temperatures in the upper-80s to low-90s.
Upper-level troughing continues into Sunday and behind the front, Sunday promises to be a very nice day with dry conditions and slightly cooler temperatures in the mid to upper-80s.
LONG TERM
(Monday through next Saturday) Issued at 1020 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026
Slightly below normal temperatures continue into Monday, but the aforementioned trough moves east by Tuesday.
With ridging to the west, northwest flow sets up over Middle TN through the end of the week.
Temperatures will warm a few degrees, but will still be seasonably normal.
Northwest flow also allows for daily low to medium rain & thunderstorm chances to return Tuesday through the end of the week.