A Weak Front
Saturday, August 22, 2026 · 12:04 AM

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Key Messages. Updated at twelve zero one A.M. Central Daylight Time Saturday August twenty-second twenty twenty-six. Low thunderstorm chances Saturday, primarily across the Plateau and southern Middle Tennessee. Overall drier with slightly below-normal temperatures this weekend with patchy fog Saturday and Sunday mornings. Low to medium rain and storm chances next week with seasonal temperatures. The quiet conditions prevail tonight like a sentence handed down in silence! Light winds and clear skies prepare the altar for the morning shroud! Upper level troffing locks the continent in cold despair! A ten to twenty percent chance west of the Plateau! There is no sanctuary in the numbers! High confidence fog crawls across the high terrain before the break of day! Moisture trapped beneath the calm as temperature drops toward the mid-eighties! The weak boundary moves southward toward the Tennessee and Alabama border! Isolated convection waiting in the heat of the afternoon sun! We watch the sky collapse in silence beneath the weight of upper level troffing! The morning fog becomes a permanent grave! The afternoon offers no escape from the heat! When the sky breaks open there is no refuge left! There is only a weak front! Behind the boundary Sunday promises a cold deceit! Upper level troffing continues into the dark! Upper eighty to low ninety degree heat baking the dry soil! The short term offers no salvation, only a brief reprieve before the rain returns! Patchy fog on Sunday morning suffocating every valley and every hollow! A weak front creeping down from the north to carve us open! The boundary holds! The fog entombs the Plateau! Behind the front we bleed into the mid-eighties! There is no hope left in the forecast! There is only a weak front!
The forecast discussion
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 1201 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026
- Low thunderstorm chances Saturday, primarily across the Plateau and southern Middle TN.
- Overall drier with slightly below-normal temperatures this weekend with patchy fog Saturday and Sunday mornings.
- Low to medium rain and storm chances next week with seasonal temperatures.
SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Sunday Night) Issued at 1020 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026
Quiet conditions are expected to prevail tonight with the only concern being fog.
Mostly clear skies and light winds will be supportive for fog overnight.
Highest confidence in fog is across the Plateau, and short-term models support this as well with only low probability of 10-20% for fog west of the Plateau.
Upper-level troughing remains in place over the eastern CONUS Saturday, and a weak front will allow for isolated thunderstorms to develop during the afternoon, mainly for areas near the TN/AL border and across the Plateau.
Otherwise, it'll be a fairly nice Saturday with most of the area staying dry and seasonable temperatures in the upper-80s to low-90s.
Upper-level troughing continues into Sunday and behind the front, Sunday promises to be a very nice day with dry conditions and slightly cooler temperatures in the mid to upper-80s.
LONG TERM
(Monday through next Saturday) Issued at 1020 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026
Slightly below normal temperatures continue into Monday, but the aforementioned trough moves east by Tuesday.
With ridging to the west, northwest flow sets up over Middle TN through the end of the week.
Temperatures will warm a few degrees, but will still be seasonably normal.
Northwest flow also allows for daily low to medium rain & thunderstorm chances to return Tuesday through the end of the week.