Peak Afternoon Heating
Saturday, August 22, 2026 · 11:59 AM
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Updated at eleven fifty A.M. Central Daylight Time Saturday August twenty-second twenty twenty-six Low chance for a thunderstorm mid afternoon through early evening, primarily east of Interstate sixty-five. Some storms could be strong to severe posing a threat for damaging wind gusts. Slightly below-normal temperatures, particularly overnight, this weekend into early next week. Low to medium rain and storm chances most days next week with seasonal temperatures. Broad upper-level troff over the eastern states! Disturbance advancing through the Ohio Valley! Front making its way toward Middle Tennessee! Moisture building up ahead of the boundary! Two thousand to three thousand joules per kilogram! Forty knots of mid-level flow! Peak afternoon heating! Peak afternoon heating! Peak afternoon heating! Peak afternoon heating! Damaging wind gusts! Quarter size hail! Three P.M. to nine P.M.! Peak afternoon heating! Peak afternoon heating! Peak afternoon heating! Peak afternoon heating! Peak afternoon heating! Peak afternoon heating! Peak afternoon heating!
The forecast discussion
NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 1150 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026
- Low chance for a thunderstorm mid afternoon through early evening, primarily east of I-65. Some storms could be strong to severe posing a threat for damaging wind gusts.
- Slightly below-normal temperatures, particularly overnight, this weekend into early next week.
- Low to medium rain and storm chances most days next week with seasonal temperatures.
SHORT TERM
(Rest of today through Sunday) Issued at 1150 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026
A broad upper-level trough remains in place across the eastern CONUS today.
An embedded disturbance is now advancing southeast through the Ohio Valley with an associated front now along the Ohio River making its way toward Middle Tennessee.
Though it is relatively dry currently, slight moistening is expected ahead of the front as it approaches Middle Tennessee during peak afternoon heating.
This will support increasing surface-based instability (2,000-3,000 J/kg) this afternoon within a nice corridor of mid- level flow (~40 kts).
As a result, any storms that form and maintain this afternoon and evening will pose a threat for damaging wind gusts and perhaps hail up to quarter size.
This band of convection should mainly be limited to 3 PM to 9 PM across Middle Tennessee and greatest overall chances are for areas east of I-65.
The rest of the short-term looks dry and stable as we remain in northwest flow aloft and amidst an area of drier air behind the front moving through tonight.
LONG TERM
(Sunday Night through next Saturday) Issued at 1150 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026
Cooler overnights and mornings will persist through early next week thanks to drier air in place.
Higher terrain across the Plateau are forecast to have lows in the upper 50s Monday and Tuesday mornings.
Troughing will make a slow progression to the east mid to late next week.
This should open the door for an increase in moisture from the west.
Continued mid- to upper-level flow will persist from the northwest providing a corridor for shortwaves to move through the area.
These passing disturbances support the low to medium rain and storm chances most days next week.
Temperatures are generally near seasonal norms.