A Complete Mess
Thursday, August 20, 2026 · 4:26 AM
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There is a slight risk, level two out of five, for severe storms early Thursday morning along and north of Interstate forty. Damaging winds and heavy rain are the main concerns. A new marginal risk, level one out of five, for severe storms is out for Thursday afternoon and evening mainly south of Interstate forty and along the Cumberland Plateau. Drier conditions with near normal temperatures are expected this weekend. Distant radar flickering in the dark. A diffuse frontal zone waiting to spark. Two A.M. in the northwest corner. Three A.M. as the boundary moves south. Upstream in Missouri, the system collapses, Outflow driving straight into our mouths. The mesoscale convective system tracks through Kentucky, Shedding cold air across the state line. Cape climbing past two thousand in the afternoon heat, Downdraft cape over one thousand, breaking the spine. The diffuse front approaches, the impulse ignites. Upstream storms across the border, Breaking down the lower order. When morning falls across the west, The short range models are a complete mess. A complete mess! Outflow dominant! Outflow dominant! Outflow dominant! Outflow dominant!
The forecast discussion
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 416 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026
- There is a slight risk (level 2 out of 5) for severe storms early Thursday morning along and north of I-40. Damaging winds and heavy rain are the main concerns.
- A new marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) for severe storms is out for Thursday afternoon and evening mainly south of I-40 and along the Cumberland Plateau.
- Drier conditions with near normal temperatures are expected this weekend.
SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Friday Night) Issued at 1045 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026
Short range models have been a complete mess handling upstream storms over MO and this has complicated our storm forecast for tonight.
Latest trends bring storms in later than our previous forecast, perhaps as late as 2 or 3 AM CDT in our northwest.
How far south storms develop is also a bit uncertain, but even if the main MCS tracks up in KY, it should still push some outflow storms down into the Mid State.
Our far southern counties may not see any rain through the night.
A severe risk continues with the storms, mainly damaging wind gusts.
A brief tornado cannot be fully ruled out, but storms should be outflow dominant with relatively stable boundary conditions here compared to upstream areas.
Local heavy rain will be a concern, mainly in the northwest.
Pockets of showers and storms will linger into the morning as a diffuse frontal zone approaches the area.
Much of midday will be rain-free.
Then, after the atmosphere recovers, additional scattered storms will form along the weak frontal zone as another impulse crosses the area.
This time the greatest severe storm and heavy rain potential will be located across our southern and Plateau counties.
Local damaging wind gusts will be the concern in the afternoon as capes climb above 2000 with dcape values over 1k.
Some additional shortwave energy will cross the area Thursday and Friday with a low chance for more showers and storms, mainly south and Plateau.
LONG TERM
(Saturday through next Thursday) Issued at 1045 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026
Slightly less humid air will move in with temperatures staying around normal through the weekend and into early next week.
Rain chances look very low for the weekend.
The upper high will push eastward early next week which means temperatures and humidity will start to creep up toward mid next week.