Atmosphere Recovers
Thursday, August 20, 2026 · 12:29 AM
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Slight risk, level two out of five, for severe storms late tonight into early Thursday morning along and north of Interstate forty. Damaging winds and heavy rain are the main concerns. Scattered thunderstorms develop again in the afternoon and evening with a low severe weather threat for areas south of Interstate forty. Near normal temperatures are expected this weekend. Short range models were a complete mess Handling storms out in Missouri Trends are pushing everything back Two or three A.M. in a hurry Even if the main system stays north Up in Kentucky where it belongs It is gonna kick an outflow down To hit us with these heavy songs! Far southern counties staying dry Boundary conditions hold steady Damaging gusts coming down the line Get yourself ready! Late tonight along forty The winds hit hard and fast When the morning clears away The atmosphere recovers! The atmosphere recovers! Pockets of showers lingering late Diffuse frontal zone coming in Midday gives us a quiet break Then the cape climbs above two thousand! D-cape values over one thousand strong Impulse crossing through the heat Southern counties and the Plateau now Taking the thunder to the street! Late tonight along forty The winds hit hard and fast When the morning clears away The atmosphere recovers! The atmosphere recovers! Outflow pushing south! Capes climbing high! The atmosphere recovers! The atmosphere recovers!
The forecast discussion
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 1229 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026
- Slight risk (level 2 out of 5) for severe storms late tonight into early Thursday morning along and north of I-40. Damaging winds and heavy rain are the main concerns.
- Scattered thunderstorms develop again in the afternoon and evening with a low severe weather threat for areas south of I-40.
- Near normal temperatures are expected this weekend.
SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Friday Night) Issued at 1045 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026
Short range models have been a complete mess handling upstream storms over MO and this has complicated our storm forecast for tonight.
Latest trends bring storms in later than our previous forecast, perhaps as late as 2 or 3 AM CDT in our northwest.
How far south storms develop is also a bit uncertain, but even if the main MCS tracks up in KY, it should still push some outflow storms down into the Mid State.
Our far southern counties may not see any rain through the night.
A severe risk continues with the storms, mainly damaging wind gusts.
A brief tornado cannot be fully ruled out, but storms should be outflow dominant with relatively stable boundary conditions here compared to upstream areas.
Local heavy rain will be a concern, mainly in the northwest.
Pockets of showers and storms will linger into the morning as a diffuse frontal zone approaches the area.
Much of midday will be rain-free.
Then, after the atmosphere recovers, additional scattered storms will form along the weak frontal zone as another impulse crosses the area.
This time the greatest severe storm and heavy rain potential will be located across our southern and Plateau counties.
Local damaging wind gusts will be the concern in the afternoon as capes climb above 2000 with dcape values over 1k.
Some additional shortwave energy will cross the area Thursday and Friday with a low chance for more showers and storms, mainly south and Plateau.
LONG TERM
(Saturday through next Thursday) Issued at 1045 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026
Slightly less humid air will move in with temperatures staying around normal through the weekend and into early next week.
Rain chances look very low for the weekend.
The upper high will push eastward early next week which means temperatures and humidity will start to creep up toward mid next week.