Over 2000
Thursday, August 20, 2026 · 6:48 AM
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There is a slight risk for severe storms early Thursday morning along and north of Interstate forty. Damaging winds and heavy rain are the main concerns. A new marginal risk for severe storms is out for Thursday afternoon and evening mainly south of Interstate forty and along the Cumberland Plateau. Drier conditions with near normal temperatures are expected this weekend. Upstream models are a complete mess! Missouri storms tearing through the night! Two or three A.M. in the northwest, Outflow pushing down the spire! Relatively stable at the boundary line, But the mesoscale system is alive! Far southern counties dry for now, Waiting for the spark to survive! Pockets of showers lingering till dawn! The diffuse frontal zone is moving on! Midday gives a moment of quiet peace, Before the unstable energy is released! The atmosphere recovers under burning light! Another impulse crosses through the afternoon night! Across the Cumberland Plateau and southern skies, Watch the capes climb over 2000! Weak frontal zone sitting in the heat! D-cape values pushing over one thousand! Local damaging gusts at our feet, As the thunderstorms reignite the land! Shortwave energy Friday and today, No escape from the vertical force! Bursting down from the plateau rim, Destructive winds running their course! A brief tornado cannot be ruled out! Outflow dominant, hear the sirens shout! Heavy rain falling in the northwest zone, We are standing in the heat alone! The atmosphere recovers under burning light! Another impulse crosses through the afternoon night! Across the Cumberland Plateau and southern skies, Watch the capes climb over 2000! D-cape over one thousand! Capes climb over 2000! The atmosphere recovers and breaks! South of Interstate forty!
The forecast discussion
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 642 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026
- There is a slight risk (level 2 out of 5) for severe storms early Thursday morning along and north of I-40. Damaging winds and heavy rain are the main concerns.
- A new marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) for severe storms is out for Thursday afternoon and evening mainly south of I-40 and along the Cumberland Plateau.
- Drier conditions with near normal temperatures are expected this weekend.
SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Friday Night) Issued at 1045 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026
Short range models have been a complete mess handling upstream storms over MO and this has complicated our storm forecast for tonight.
Latest trends bring storms in later than our previous forecast, perhaps as late as 2 or 3 AM CDT in our northwest.
How far south storms develop is also a bit uncertain, but even if the main MCS tracks up in KY, it should still push some outflow storms down into the Mid State.
Our far southern counties may not see any rain through the night.
A severe risk continues with the storms, mainly damaging wind gusts.
A brief tornado cannot be fully ruled out, but storms should be outflow dominant with relatively stable boundary conditions here compared to upstream areas.
Local heavy rain will be a concern, mainly in the northwest.
Pockets of showers and storms will linger into the morning as a diffuse frontal zone approaches the area.
Much of midday will be rain-free.
Then, after the atmosphere recovers, additional scattered storms will form along the weak frontal zone as another impulse crosses the area.
This time the greatest severe storm and heavy rain potential will be located across our southern and Plateau counties.
Local damaging wind gusts will be the concern in the afternoon as capes climb above 2000 with dcape values over 1k.
Some additional shortwave energy will cross the area Thursday and Friday with a low chance for more showers and storms, mainly south and Plateau.
LONG TERM
(Saturday through next Thursday) Issued at 1045 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026
Slightly less humid air will move in with temperatures staying around normal through the weekend and into early next week.
Rain chances look very low for the weekend.
The upper high will push eastward early next week which means temperatures and humidity will start to creep up toward mid next week.