Let The Outflow Ride
Wednesday, August 19, 2026 · 10:45 PM
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Slight risk level two out of five for severe storms late tonight into early Thursday morning along and north of Interstate forty. Damaging winds and heavy rain are the main concerns. Scattered thunderstorms develop again in the afternoon and evening with a low severe weather threat for areas south of Interstate forty. Near normal temperatures are expected this weekend. The models are a total mess tonight Upstream in Missouri, nothing is going right Two or three A.M. in the northwest bend A mesoscale system coming round the end Dumping out of Kentucky, pushing down the line Spilling off an outflow and it suits me fine Damage in the gusts, heavy rain in the dark Boundary layer stable but it is gonna find a spark A brief tornado lurking, yeah I love the show Watch the whole sky blow Bring the heavy rain, bring the wind inside Two A.M. trouble with nowhere to hide Atmosphere recovers for a dirty night drive Yeah, let the outflow ride Midday clears up, but the capes start to climb Above two thousand, yeah it is trouble time Downdraft potential over one thousand high Along the diffuse front crossing through the sky Southern counties cooking, Plateau on the rise I got a wicked grin underneath these skies Damage in the gusts, heavy rain in the dark Boundary layer stable but it is gonna find a spark A brief tornado lurking, yeah I love the show Watch the whole sky blow Bring the heavy rain, bring the wind inside Two A.M. trouble with nowhere to hide Atmosphere recovers for a dirty night drive Yeah, let the outflow ride Let it ride South of Interstate forty, bring the storm inside Two thousand cape and nowhere to hide Yeah, let the outflow ride
The forecast discussion
NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 1045 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026
- Slight risk (level 2 out of 5) for severe storms late tonight into early Thursday morning along and north of I-40. Damaging winds and heavy rain are the main concerns.
- Scattered thunderstorms develop again in the afternoon and evening with a low severe weather threat for areas south of I-40.
- Near normal temperatures are expected this weekend.
SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Friday Night) Issued at 1045 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026
Short range models have been a complete mess handling upstream storms over MO and this has complicated our storm forecast for tonight.
Latest trends bring storms in later than our previous forecast, perhaps as late as 2 or 3 AM CDT in our northwest.
How far south storms develop is also a bit uncertain, but even if the main MCS tracks up in KY, it should still push some outflow storms down into the Mid State.
Our far southern counties may not see any rain through the night.
A severe risk continues with the storms, mainly damaging wind gusts.
A brief tornado cannot be fully ruled out, but storms should be outflow dominant with relatively stable boundary conditions here compared to upstream areas.
Local heavy rain will be a concern, mainly in the northwest.
Pockets of showers and storms will linger into the morning as a diffuse frontal zone approaches the area.
Much of midday will be rain-free.
Then, after the atmosphere recovers, additional scattered storms will form along the weak frontal zone as another impulse crosses the area.
This time the greatest severe storm and heavy rain potential will be located across our southern and Plateau counties.
Local damaging wind gusts will be the concern in the afternoon as capes climb above 2000 with dcape values over 1k.
Some additional shortwave energy will cross the area Thursday and Friday with a low chance for more showers and storms, mainly south and Plateau.
LONG TERM
(Saturday through next Thursday) Issued at 1045 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026
Slightly less humid air will move in with temperatures staying around normal through the weekend and into early next week.
Rain chances look very low for the weekend.
The upper high will push eastward early next week which means temperatures and humidity will start to creep up toward mid next week.