Southerly Return Flow
Tuesday, August 18, 2026 · 5:54 PM
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Wednesday will be very warm with temperatures rebounding into the mid nineties. Low to medium chances for showers and storms late Wednesday night and Thursday. There is a low severe weather threat Wednesday night along and west of Interstate sixty-five. Near normal temperatures this weekend. High temperatures top out in the mid nineties today Southerly return flow taking all the cool air away Dew points creeping back into the seventies fast That comfortable weather wasn't built to last Heat indices hitting one hundred and two Wednesday afternoon is burning right through Overnight skies start to fill up with cloud An approaching cold front getting heavy and loud Strong gusty winds and a heavy rain threat The sky is loading up and it hasn't hit yet Low severe threat along the line Blowing through the midnight wind and time West of Interstate sixty-five Feel the southerly return flow Front shifts east by the mid afternoon Drier air coming to relieve us soon Friday brings the troffing northwest flow Isolated showers with nowhere left to go High pressure settling to lock in the change Back to near normal in a comfortable range Low severe threat along the line Blowing through the midnight wind and time West of Interstate sixty-five Feel the southerly return flow Southerly return flow West of Interstate sixty-five Near normal by the weekend Near normal by the weekend
The forecast discussion
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 546 PM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026
- Wednesday will be very warm with temperatures rebounding into the mid 90s.
- Low to medium chances for showers and storms late Wednesday night and Thursday.
There is a low severe weather threat Wednesday night along and west of I-65.
- Near normal temperatures this weekend.
SHORT TERM
(This afternoon through Wednesday Night) Issued at 1216 PM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026
A much more comfortable day has played out across Middle TN today.
Our weather is cooler behind yesterday's frontal passage as high temperatures top out in the 80s and low 90s under mostly sunny skies.
Tonight's low temperatures bottom out in the upper 60s for most locations under mostly clear skies.
On Wednesday, southerly return flow will allow our temperatures to warm back into the mid 90s.
Increasing humidity accompanies the warmer temperatures as our surface dew points creep back into the 70s, too.
Our heat indices will reflect the return of warmer, more humid weather as they top out in the upper 90s and lower 100s Wednesday afternoon.
Wednesday night will begin to see a shift as an approaching system ushers in cloud cover overnight.
Rain and storm chances return by Thursday morning.
LONG TERM
(Thursday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1216 PM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026
On Thursday, an approaching cold front will maintain rain/storm chances throughout the morning hours.
Guidance suggests the potential that a few storms could become strong to severe with the primary concern being strong/gusty winds and heavy rainfall.
The overall severe weather chances are low, but non-zero.
The front will shift to the east by mid-afternoon, which will allow drier air into Middle TN Thursday evening.
Troughing and northwest flow will support additional shower chances Friday afternoon.
Fortunately, the coverage should remain rather isolated to scattered at best.
This weekend looks primarily dry, but isolated showers cannot be ruled out.
Temperatures appear to stay much more seasonable through the weekend and into early next week.
Guidance supports high pressure settling in that should limit any widespread precipitation.
A welcomed change compared to the recent warmth.