Return To Near Normal
Tuesday, August 18, 2026 · 12:21 PM
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Updated at twelve sixteen P.M. Central Daylight Time Tuesday August eighteenth twenty twenty-six. Brief relief from the heat today, but temperatures rebound into the mid-nineties on Wednesday. Rain and storm chances return Wednesday night into Thursday. There is a low severe weather threat Wednesday night. Temperatures return to near-normal for this weekend. Behind yesterday's frontal passage A comfortable morning in Middle Tennessee Cooler high temperatures in the eighties Upper sixties beneath the clear night sky A brief window of mercy before the heat rebounds Dew points creeping back into the seventies Surface moisture returns on Wednesday afternoon Heat indices topping out in the lower one hundreds The calm is fading, cloud cover ushered in An approaching cold front on the horizon The window closes Moisture creeps into the air Waiting for Thursday morning Return to near normal The boundary shifts to the east! Drier air into Middle Tennessee! Southerly return flow! Southerly return flow! Southerly return flow! Southerly return flow!
The forecast discussion
NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 1216 PM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026
- Brief relief from the heat today, but temperatures rebound into the mid-90s on Wednesday.
- Rain and storm chances return Wednesday night into Thursday.
There is a low severe weather threat Wednesday night.
- Temperatures return to near-normal for this weekend.
SHORT TERM
(This afternoon through Wednesday Night) Issued at 1216 PM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026
A much more comfortable day has played out across Middle TN today.
Our weather is cooler behind yesterday's frontal passage as high temperatures top out in the 80s and low 90s under mostly sunny skies.
Tonight's low temperatures bottom out in the upper 60s for most locations under mostly clear skies.
On Wednesday, southerly return flow will allow our temperatures to warm back into the mid 90s.
Increasing humidity accompanies the warmer temperatures as our surface dew points creep back into the 70s, too.
Our heat indices will reflect the return of warmer, more humid weather as they top out in the upper 90s and lower 100s Wednesday afternoon.
Wednesday night will begin to see a shift as an approaching system ushers in cloud cover overnight.
Rain and storm chances return by Thursday morning.
LONG TERM
(Thursday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1216 PM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026
On Thursday, an approaching cold front will maintain rain/storm chances throughout the morning hours.
Guidance suggests the potential that a few storms could become strong to severe with the primary concern being strong/gusty winds and heavy rainfall.
The overall severe weather chances are low, but non-zero.
The front will shift to the east by mid-afternoon, which will allow drier air into Middle TN Thursday evening.
Troughing and northwest flow will support additional shower chances Friday afternoon.
Fortunately, the coverage should remain rather isolated to scattered at best.
This weekend looks primarily dry, but isolated showers cannot be ruled out.
Temperatures appear to stay much more seasonable through the weekend and into early next week.
Guidance supports high pressure settling in that should limit any widespread precipitation.
A welcomed change compared to the recent warmth.