Low But Non Zero
Tuesday, August 18, 2026 · 7:02 PM
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Wednesday will be very warm with temperatures rebounding into the mid nineties. Low to medium chances for showers and storms late Wednesday night and Thursday. There is a low severe weather threat Wednesday night along and west of Interstate sixty-five. Near normal temperatures this weekend. Southerly return flow pushes humidity back across Middle Tennessee Dew points creeping into the seventies, heat indices hitting one hundred two Cloud cover thickens after midnight as the front moves close Rain and storms by Thursday morning, heavy downpours, gusty winds LOW BUT NON ZERO! LOW BUT NON ZERO! LOW BUT NON ZERO! LOW BUT NON ZERO! ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE SIXTY FIVE! LOW BUT NON ZERO! LOW BUT NON ZERO! LOW BUT NON ZERO! LOW BUT NON ZERO! LOW BUT NON ZERO! LOW BUT NON ZERO! LOW BUT NON ZERO! LOW BUT NON ZERO! LOW BUT NON ZERO! LOW BUT NON ZERO!
The forecast discussion
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 702 PM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026
- Wednesday will be very warm with temperatures rebounding into the mid 90s.
- Low to medium chances for showers and storms late Wednesday night and Thursday.
There is a low severe weather threat Wednesday night along and west of I-65.
- Near normal temperatures this weekend.
SHORT TERM
(This afternoon through Wednesday Night) Issued at 1216 PM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026
A much more comfortable day has played out across Middle TN today.
Our weather is cooler behind yesterday's frontal passage as high temperatures top out in the 80s and low 90s under mostly sunny skies.
Tonight's low temperatures bottom out in the upper 60s for most locations under mostly clear skies.
On Wednesday, southerly return flow will allow our temperatures to warm back into the mid 90s.
Increasing humidity accompanies the warmer temperatures as our surface dew points creep back into the 70s, too.
Our heat indices will reflect the return of warmer, more humid weather as they top out in the upper 90s and lower 100s Wednesday afternoon.
Wednesday night will begin to see a shift as an approaching system ushers in cloud cover overnight.
Rain and storm chances return by Thursday morning.
LONG TERM
(Thursday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1216 PM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026
On Thursday, an approaching cold front will maintain rain/storm chances throughout the morning hours.
Guidance suggests the potential that a few storms could become strong to severe with the primary concern being strong/gusty winds and heavy rainfall.
The overall severe weather chances are low, but non-zero.
The front will shift to the east by mid-afternoon, which will allow drier air into Middle TN Thursday evening.
Troughing and northwest flow will support additional shower chances Friday afternoon.
Fortunately, the coverage should remain rather isolated to scattered at best.
This weekend looks primarily dry, but isolated showers cannot be ruled out.
Temperatures appear to stay much more seasonable through the weekend and into early next week.
Guidance supports high pressure settling in that should limit any widespread precipitation.
A welcomed change compared to the recent warmth.