Pushing Low 100s
Tuesday, August 18, 2026 · 6:10 AM
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Brief relief from the heat Tuesday, but temperatures warm back into the mid-nineties Wednesday. The next storm system brings medium to high rain chances Wednesday night into Thursday. There is a low severe weather threat Wednesday night. Temperatures return to near normal for August this weekend. A reinforcing surge of drier air! Northwest flow gives us a moment to breathe! Upper eighties to low nineties under sunny skies! A brief respite before the atmosphere dies! Tuesday night drops to sixty-eight degrees! Clear skies, quiet minds, brought to our knees! It is only brief! It is only brief! By Wednesday morning the wind turns south! Moisture flooding back into our mouths! A deepening troff on the eastern shore! The humidity knocks upon the door! Southerly return flow steals the cool light! Showers and storms coming after midnight! The mercury rebounds, we lose control! Heat index pushing low 100s! Mid to upper nineties creeping through the dirt! Cold front approaching, preparing for the hurt! Showers and thunderstorms likely after midnight! The threat is low but the darkness turns white! Gusty winds and heavy rain on Thursday's crest! A deepening troff in the eastern chest! Residual moisture! Weak disturbances rotate! Around the troff we accept our fate! The heat episode is effectively done! We drown the mid-August sun! Drown the mid-August sun! Southerly return flow steals the cool light! Showers and storms coming after midnight! The mercury rebounds, we lose control! Heat index pushing low 100s! After midnight! Showers becoming likely! The prolonged heat is effectively ending! Pushing low 100s! Pushing low 100s!
The forecast discussion
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 605 AM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026
- Brief relief from the heat Tuesday, but temperatures warm back into the mid-90s Wednesday.
- The next storm system brings medium to high rain chances Wednesday night into Thursday.
There is a low severe weather threat Wednesday night.
- Temperatures return to near normal for August this weekend.
SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Wednesday Night) Issued at 946 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026
A reinforcing surge of drier air and NW flow will settle across Middle Tn on Tuesday.
Highs are expected in the upper 80s to low 90s under mostly sunny skies, noticeably more comfortable than recent days.
Overnight lows Tuesday night drop into the upper 60s to around 70 with clear skies.
By Wednesday, southerly return flow allows temperatures to rebound.
Highs climb back into the mid to upper 90s with increasing humidity, pushing heat indices into the 90s to low 100s in some locations.
While not as extreme, it will still feel quite warm.
Clouds increase Wednesday night as the next system approaches, with showers and thunderstorms becoming likely after midnight.
LONG TERM
(Thursday through next Tuesday) Issued at 946 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026
A cold front associated with a deepening trough over the E U.S. will move through the region Thursday.
This will bring the best rain chances of the period along with highs held in the upper 80s to low 90s.
Any stronger storms Thursday could produce gusty winds and heavy rainfall, through organized severe weather appears limited.
Behind the front, temperatures settle closer to seasonal normals Friday through the weekend, with highs generally in the upper 80s to low 90s and lower humidity.
Additional chances of showers and storms linger into the weekend as residual moisture and weak disturbances rotate around the trough, but coverage should be more scattered.
By early next week, high pressure builds briefly, favoring mostly dry conditions and continued seasonable temperatures.
Confidence is good in the overall cooling and increased precipitation trend through the weekend.
The prolonged heat episode of mid-August is effectively ending.
Enjoy the more comfortable conditions Thursday, then prepare for a wetter stretch through the end of next week.