A Progressive Pattern
Tuesday, August 18, 2026 · 5:14 AM
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We'll enjoy brief but welcome relief today with sunny skies. One final push of heat returns on Wednesday, but we'll remain below Heat Advisory criteria. A more progressive pattern will develop Wednesday night into next week, bringing increased rain chances and a return to near normal temperatures by the weekend. There is a marginal risk of severe storms late Wednesday night across extreme western and northwest Middle Tennessee for a wind and hail threat. A reinforcing surge of drier air... Northwest flow settling quiet across Middle Tennessee... Highs in the upper eighties to low nineties... Noticeably more comfortable than before... Overnight lows drop into the upper sixties to around seventy Clear skies watching quietly while we try to rest Enjoy the brief relief of Tuesday Because Wednesday brings the southerly return flow Highs climb right back into the mid to upper nineties Heat indices pushing toward one hundred It was only a pause before the turn Clouds increase late Wednesday night! The next system approaches the state! Showers and thunderstorms likely after midnight! A marginal risk creeping across extreme western Middle Tennessee! THE SOUTHERLY FLOW REBOUNDS AGAIN! LEVEL ONE OUT OF FIVE FOR WIND AND HAIL! AFTER MIDNIGHT THE SKY IS GOING TO SHATTER! A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN! EXTREME WESTERN AND NORTHWEST MIDDLE TENNESSEE! WIND AND HAIL THREAT! AFTER MIDNIGHT! IT ALL FALLS APART AFTER MIDNIGHT! A progressive pattern... Rain chances returning by the weekend... A progressive pattern...
The forecast discussion
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 503 AM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026
- We'll enjoy brief but welcome relief today with sunny skies.
One final push of heat returns on Wednesday, but we'll remain below Heat Advisory criteria.
- A more progressive pattern will develop Wednesday night into next week, bringing increased rain chances and a return to near normal temperatures by the weekend.
- There is a marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) of severe storms late Wednesday night across extreme western and northwest Middle Tennessee for a wind and hail threat.
SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Wednesday Night) Issued at 946 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026
A reinforcing surge of drier air and NW flow will settle across Middle Tn on Tuesday.
Highs are expected in the upper 80s to low 90s under mostly sunny skies, noticeably more comfortable than recent days.
Overnight lows Tuesday night drop into the upper 60s to around 70 with clear skies.
By Wednesday, southerly return flow allows temperatures to rebound.
Highs climb back into the mid to upper 90s with increasing humidity, pushing heat indices into the 90s to low 100s in some locations.
While not as extreme, it will still feel quite warm.
Clouds increase Wednesday night as the next system approaches, with showers and thunderstorms becoming likely after midnight.
LONG TERM
(Thursday through next Tuesday) Issued at 946 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026
A cold front associated with a deepening trough over the E U.S. will move through the region Thursday.
This will bring the best rain chances of the period along with highs held in the upper 80s to low 90s.
Any stronger storms Thursday could produce gusty winds and heavy rainfall, through organized severe weather appears limited.
Behind the front, temperatures settle closer to seasonal normals Friday through the weekend, with highs generally in the upper 80s to low 90s and lower humidity.
Additional chances of showers and storms linger into the weekend as residual moisture and weak disturbances rotate around the trough, but coverage should be more scattered.
By early next week, high pressure builds briefly, favoring mostly dry conditions and continued seasonable temperatures.
Confidence is good in the overall cooling and increased precipitation trend through the weekend.
The prolonged heat episode of mid-August is effectively ending.
Enjoy the more comfortable conditions Thursday, then prepare for a wetter stretch through the end of next week.