Not Expecting Much Relief
Monday, August 10, 2026 · 12:20 PM
Lyrics
Heat Risk will climb to Major level this week. A Heat Advisory is now in effect for much of Middle Tennessee west of the Plateau. Low to medium chance of showers and storms each afternoon and early evening, best chances generally east of Interstate sixty-five. Overall risk for flooding and severe weather is very low. August weather is building across the region today! Hot and humid conditions taking all our air away! A developing ridge of high pressure taking control! Highs in the low to mid nineties burning down my soul! Heat indices in the one hundreds today and tomorrow! West of the Plateau, nothing left but thermal sorrow! Less than thirty percent chance of rain in the sky! Watching the temperature climbing up high! ONE HUNDRED NINE DEGREES! WESTWARD TO THE TENNESSEE RIVER! NASHVILLE METRO IN THE FIRE! MAJOR LEVEL HEAT! NO RAIN COOLED RELIEF! HEAT ADVISORY STARTS AT TEN A.M.! Deep layer ridging nudging storms far to the north! Ohio Valley gets the rain while we burn back and forth! National Blend of Models cutting probability of precipitation! Persisting heat across the entire nation! Heat indices climbing higher into mid week! No rain-cooled air for the comfort that we seek! Less than thirty percent chance to break this wall! Watch the heat advisory fall!
The forecast discussion
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 1218 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026
- Heat Risk will climb to Major level (3 out of 4) this week.
A Heat Advisory is now in effect for much of Middle Tennessee west of the Plateau.
- Low to medium (<40%) chance of showers and storms each afternoon and early evening, best chances generally east of I-65. Overall risk for flooding and severe weather is very low.
SHORT TERM
(This afternoon through Tuesday Night) Issued at 1201 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026
August weather is really, and unfortunately, building across the region this week with hot and humid conditions thanks to a developing ridge of high pressure.
Heat indices in the 100s are forecast for areas west of the Plateau today and tomorrow with highs in the low to mid 90s.
Heat indices up to 109 degrees are forecast for areas surrounding the Nashville metro westward toward the Tennessee River starting tomorrow.
With rain/storm chances only <30% through tomorrow, we're not expecting much relief from rain- cooled air, though thankfully we'll be spared from organized severe weather and flooding.
A Heat Advisory is now in effect starting 10 AM Tuesday morning.
LONG TERM
(Wednesday through next Monday) Issued at 1201 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026
Deep-layer ridging is forecast to continue building across the region mid to late this week.
This will increase probabilities for impactful heat indices and also nudge the favored corridor for storms to our north and east (Ohio Valley through mid Appalachians).
In fact, latest NBM guidance has decreased overall rain chances across Middle Tennessee through late week, unfortunately limiting chances for heat relief.
Heat impacts are expected to persist across the region, so heat-related headlines will likely needed expanded in both area and time.