3 Out Of 4
Monday, August 10, 2026 · 12:09 PM
Lyrics
Updated at twelve zero one P.M. Central Daylight Time Monday August tenth twenty twenty-six Heat Risk will climb to Major level three out of four this week. A Heat Advisory is now in effect for much of Middle Tennessee west of the Plateau. Low to medium less than forty percent chance of showers and storms each afternoon and early evening, best chances generally east of Interstate sixty-five. Overall risk for flooding and severe weather is very low. Twelve! Twelve zero one! High pressure building! High! Twelve zero one P.M.! The barometric-- Climbing! Low nineties! Mid nineties! Heat index touching one-- Touching one hundred! West of the Plateau! At ten A.M. Tuesday morning-- The threshold breaks! Less than thirty percent! Rain won't-- Rain won't save us now! One hundred nine degrees! Surrounding the metro! Nashville burns at-- Twelve zero one! August weather building across-- Across the grid! No relief! Less than thirty percent! Interstate sixty-five breaks east! Stop! Stutter! Heat indices-- One hundred nine! MAJOR LEVEL! THREE OUT OF FOUR! MAJOR LEVEL THREE OUT OF FOUR! NO ORGANIZED SEVERE! JUST DUST AND HEAT! TEN A.M. ADVISORY! TEN A.M.! TEN A.M.! THE RIDGE STAYS DEEP! ONE HUNDRED NINE DEGREES! LESS THAN THIRTY PERCENT CHANCE OF ANYTHING TO COOL THIS FIRE! WEST OF THE PLATEAU WE BURN ALIVE! MAJOR RISK! THREE OUT OF FOUR! Twelve zero one P.M. ... Ten A.M. Tuesday ... One hundred nine ... No relief ...
The forecast discussion
NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 1201 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026
- Heat Risk will climb to Major level (3 out of 4) this week.
A Heat Advisory is now in effect for much of Middle Tennessee west of the Plateau.
- Low to medium (<40%) chance of showers and storms each afternoon and early evening, best chances generally east of I-65. Overall risk for flooding and severe weather is very low.
SHORT TERM
(This afternoon through Tuesday Night) Issued at 1201 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026
August weather is really, and unfortunately, building across the region this week with hot and humid conditions thanks to a developing ridge of high pressure.
Heat indices in the 100s are forecast for areas west of the Plateau today and tomorrow with highs in the low to mid 90s.
Heat indices up to 109 degrees are forecast for areas surrounding the Nashville metro westward toward the Tennessee River starting tomorrow.
With rain/storm chances only <30% through tomorrow, we're not expecting much relief from rain- cooled air, though thankfully we'll be spared from organized severe weather and flooding.
A Heat Advisory is now in effect starting 10 AM Tuesday morning.
LONG TERM
(Wednesday through next Monday) Issued at 1201 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026
Deep-layer ridging is forecast to continue building across the region mid to late this week.
This will increase probabilities for impactful heat indices and also nudge the favored corridor for storms to our north and east (Ohio Valley through mid Appalachians).
In fact, latest NBM guidance has decreased overall rain chances across Middle Tennessee through late week, unfortunately limiting chances for heat relief.
Heat impacts are expected to persist across the region, so heat-related headlines will likely needed expanded in both area and time.