Deep Layer Ridging
Monday, August 10, 2026 · 6:11 PM
Lyrics
Heat Risk will climb to Major level three out of four this week. A Heat Advisory is now in effect for much of Middle Tennessee west of the Plateau starting Tuesday. Low to medium, less than forty percent chance of showers and storms each afternoon and early evening, best chances generally east of Interstate sixty-five. Overall risk for flooding and severe weather is very low. Ten A.M. Tuesday morning. The advisory goes live. West of the Plateau, the silence starts to hum. Highs in the low to mid nineties. Heat indices pushing past one hundred. One hundred nine degrees surrounding the Nashville metro. Westward toward the Tennessee River. We prayed for rain-cooled air. We prayed for an outflow to snap the sky open. Less than thirty percent chance through tomorrow. The corridor shifted north to the Ohio Valley. There is no storm coming to save us. August weather building across the region! Trapped beneath the heavy air! National Blend of Models decreasing overall rain chances! Limiting relief! Extending the headlines! Expanded in both area and time! DEEP-LAYER RIDGING! DEEP-LAYER RIDGING IS BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION! NO RELIEF FROM RAIN-COOLED AIR! HEAT RISK MAJOR LEVEL THREE OUT OF FOUR! DEEP-LAYER RIDGING! DEEP-LAYER RIDGING! DEEP-LAYER RIDGING! DEEP-LAYER RIDGING!
The forecast discussion
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 607 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026
- Heat Risk will climb to Major level (3 out of 4) this week.
A Heat Advisory is now in effect for much of Middle Tennessee west of the Plateau starting Tuesday.
- Low to medium (<40%) chance of showers and storms each afternoon and early evening, best chances generally east of I-65. Overall risk for flooding and severe weather is very low.
SHORT TERM
(This afternoon through Tuesday Night) Issued at 1201 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026
August weather is really, and unfortunately, building across the region this week with hot and humid conditions thanks to a developing ridge of high pressure.
Heat indices in the 100s are forecast for areas west of the Plateau today and tomorrow with highs in the low to mid 90s.
Heat indices up to 109 degrees are forecast for areas surrounding the Nashville metro westward toward the Tennessee River starting tomorrow.
With rain/storm chances only <30% through tomorrow, we're not expecting much relief from rain- cooled air, though thankfully we'll be spared from organized severe weather and flooding.
A Heat Advisory is now in effect starting 10 AM Tuesday morning.
LONG TERM
(Wednesday through next Monday) Issued at 1201 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026
Deep-layer ridging is forecast to continue building across the region mid to late this week.
This will increase probabilities for impactful heat indices and also nudge the favored corridor for storms to our north and east (Ohio Valley through mid Appalachians).
In fact, latest NBM guidance has decreased overall rain chances across Middle Tennessee through late week, unfortunately limiting chances for heat relief.
Heat impacts are expected to persist across the region, so heat-related headlines will likely needed expanded in both area and time.