A Horror Movie That Never Ends
Monday, August 10, 2026 · 6:44 AM
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Heat Risk will climb to Major level this week. Heat Advisories may be issued west of the Plateau, especially Tuesday and Wednesday. Low to medium chance of showers and storms each afternoon and early evening . Heavy downpours with local flash flooding will be the main concern. Gusty winds can't be ruled out, but the threat of severe winds is very low. Sunday was a quiet lie! A temporary breath while the soil recovers from the drowning on Saturday! The Bermuda Ridge retrogrades into our lungs! Creeping west across the state to burn out the sky! Upper level ridging takes its seat upon the ruined earth! No rain will come to extinguish the sky! One hundred five to one hundred seven! The feels-like temperature suffocates the valley! Major level heat risk! Three out of four! There is no shelter west of the Plateau! Seventy to eighty percent chance of ninety-five degrees or higher! The National Blend of Models surrenders to the heat! What was upper eighties has transformed into a furnace! Dew points locked in a hopeless challenge! Convection crushed beneath the weight of sinking air! Tuesday and Wednesday will swallow us whole! Major level heat risk! The ridge is winning! One hundred seven degrees! It retrogrades forever! It retrogrades forever!
The forecast discussion
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 639 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026
- Heat Risk will climb to Major level (3 out of 4) this week.
Heat Advisories may be issued west of the Plateau, especially Tuesday and Wednesday.
- Low to medium (10 to 40 percent) chance of showers and storms each afternoon and early evening (highest chances along the Cumberland Plateau).
Heavy downpours with local flash flooding will be the main concern.
Gusty winds can't be ruled out, but the threat of severe winds is very low.
SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Wednesday Night) Issued at 1041 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026
Sunday turned out to be our quietest day of weather in the last week.
A few spots saw some thunderstorms, but after the flooding we saw Saturday in Williamson County, I'll take the lack of activity anytime.
This also provided our soils an opportunity to recover after the widespread storms on Saturday.
Some patchy fog will be possible after midnight, but shouldn't be widespread at all.
We've been talking about this quite a bit the last few days and it does look like we're going to start seeing more upper level ridging begin to influence our weather in Middle TN on Monday.
The Bermuda Ridge has started to retrograde to the west and while a couple of storms can't be ruled out, I think the bigger issue will start to become the heat.
Now, while tomorrow should be a couple of degrees warmer than we saw today, I don't think it's going to be our warmest and most humid day of the week.
This looks like it's going to be Tuesday and maybe even again on Wednesday.
A couple of spots may reach Heat Index values of 105 tomorrow, but by far, feels-like temps of 105 to 107 degrees will be much more widespread on minimally on Tuesday, but even Wednesday.
For this reason, I'll hold off on the heat headline for tomorrow and focus on the middle of the week for Heat Advisories.
LONG TERM
(Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 1041 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026
As we reach Thursday, there are still some inconsistencies between models.
However, it does seem as though stronger ridging may end up winning out over the mid-state and the latest NBM is definitely picking up on this.
What was upper 80s to about 90 for the second half of the week has now become mid 90s for areas west of the Cumberland Plateau right into next weekend.
NBM MaxT probs each afternoon starting Thursday through next weekend of seeing 95+ degrees stands at 70-80% for many west of the Plateau.
Only 48 hours ago, it was only 30-40%.
Big change.
Dew points will be the big challenge, but even at these environmental temps, we may only be in advisory territory.
Again, I don't think we rule out a stray storm for the second half of the week, but if temps are going to get this warm because of a strengthening ridge, convection should be at a minimum each afternoon.