Same Storms, Different Day
Saturday, August 8, 2026 · 10:40 PM
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Medium chance of showers and storms Sunday afternoon into the early evening hours. Heavy downpours with local flash flooding will be the main concern. A few of the stronger storms may produce wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph and frequent lightning. This could bring down a few limbs and cause scattered power outages. Widespread severe storms are not expected at this time. Heat index values will reach the upper 90s to low 100s Sunday. Areas west of the Cumberland Plateau could have afternoon heat index values topping 105 at times next week. Another day! More storms! Another day in this suffocating pattern! No passage of a front to time out when the collapse begins! We are living at the mercy of outflows that spread across the mid-state! Quiet conditions for the rest of the night, patches of fog after midnight! West of the Cumberland Plateau, the humidity rises like a sentence! Warm and humid, developing early in the afternoon, spreading out without direction! WE ARE AT THE MERCY OF OUTFLOWS! FORTY TO FIFTY MILES PER HOUR WINDS BRINGING DOWN THE LIMBS! HEAT INDEX TOPPING ONE HUNDRED AND FIVE! HEAVY DOWNPOURS! LOCAL FLASH FLOODING! MONOTONOUS STORM-FILLED PATTERN! THERE IS NO FRONT TO SAVE US! Pinched between upper level ridges! The Bermuda ridge retrogrades into my chest! GFS leans to northwest flow! Euro says upper level ridging! THE NBM HAS NOT CHOSEN A WINNER! DIFFICULT FORECASTING! NO WINNER! FREQUENT LIGHTNING! SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES IN THE DARK! WE ARE AT THE MERCY OF OUTFLOWS! FORTY TO FIFTY MILES PER HOUR WINDS BRINGING DOWN THE LIMBS! HEAT INDEX TOPPING ONE HUNDRED AND FIVE! HEAVY DOWNPOURS! LOCAL FLASH FLOODING! MONOTONOUS STORM-FILLED PATTERN! THERE IS NO FRONT TO SAVE US!
The forecast discussion
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 1037 PM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026
- Medium (40-50%) chance of showers and storms Sunday afternoon into the early evening hours.
Heavy downpours with local flash flooding will be the main concern.
- A few of the stronger storms may produce wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph and frequent lightning.
This could bring down a few limbs and cause scattered power outages.
Widespread severe storms are not expected at this time.
- Heat index values will reach the upper 90s to low 100s Sunday.
Areas west of the Cumberland Plateau could have afternoon heat index values topping 105 at times next week.
SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Sunday Night) Issued at 1037 PM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026
Another day, more storms.
This very summer-time pattern continued today with pretty decent coverage of showers and storms, a couple of which led to some fairly significant flash flooding.
The downside is without the passage of a front to help time out when storms may occur, we're at the mercy of outflows from storms that develop, fall apart and spread out across the mid-state.
This makes for difficult forecasting.
With storms over for the day, look for quiet conditions for the rest of the night and a few patches of fog after midnight.
As we finish up the weekend tomorrow, I think we can expect at least one more day of conditions similar to what we've seen the last 4 or 5 days -- warm and humid conditions with thunderstorms that develop early in the afternoon, then spread around the area.
All of these storms will be outflow dependent as far as who sees them, but if you do see them, there will be the risk of gusty winds (40-50 mph) and heavy rainfall that could lead to flash flooding.
Please keep this in mind if you have outdoor plans tomorrow.
LONG TERM
(Monday through next Sunday) Issued at 1037 PM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026
The start of the week may very well bring a slight change in this monotonous storm-filled pattern we've been in. The driving feature involved in this will be the upper level ridges we've been pinched between for the last week.
This has kept the hotter temperatures at- bay, but led to more storms.
Monday through Wednesday, we could start to see more influence from the Bermuda ridge retrograding into the southeast US. This would mean less (not zero) thunderstorm coverage, but hotter and more humid conditions.
Heat index values have been in the upper 90s to low 100s while we've had all of these storms.
Monday through Wednesday afternoons could see us reach 105 in several places west of the Cumberland Plateau.
After Wednesday, it's kind of a crap-shoot.
Models diverge just enough to have fairly significant solution differences.
GFS is leaning more towards a northwest flow aloft which would mean more thunderstorms for the second half of the week.
The Euro says more upper ridging influences which would mean continued hotter conditions and less storms.
At this point, the NBM has not chosen a winner, so we'll have to work out the late-week details over the next couple of days.