At the Mercy of Outflows
Sunday, August 9, 2026 · 12:45 AM
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Issued at 1037 PM CDT. Another day, more storms. This very summertime pattern continued today. Without the passage of a front to help time out when storms may occur... we are at the mercy of outflows from storms that develop, fall apart, and spread out across the mid-state. Look for quiet conditions for the rest of the night, and a few patches of fog after midnight. Heat index values rising. Upper nineties to low one-hundreds. Reach 105 west of the Cumberland Plateau. The Bermuda ridge retrogrades into the southeast. Hotter. More humid. We are pinched between upper level ridges. No front is coming to break this pattern. No timing. No relief. Five days trapped in this monotonous storm-filled cage, Cells collapsing in the stagnant heat of August. Forty to fifty miles per hour in the downdraft, Heavy rainfall flooding the low ground where we stand. Models diverge into conflicting futures, And the sky refuses to give us a sign. AT THE MERCY OF OUTFLOWS! PINCHED BETWEEN THE RIDGES! AT THE MERCY OF OUTFLOWS! NO FRONT TO TIME THIS OUT! FALL APART AND SPREAD OUT! AT THE MERCY OF OUTFLOWS! THE NBM HAS NOT CHOSEN A WINNER! NO PASSAGE OF A FRONT! AT THE MERCY OF OUTFLOWS! AT THE MERCY OF OUTFLOWS!
The forecast discussion
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 1239 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026
- Medium (40-50%) chance of showers and storms Sunday afternoon into the early evening hours.
Heavy downpours with local flash flooding will be the main concern.
- A few of the stronger storms may produce wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph and frequent lightning.
This could bring down a few limbs and cause scattered power outages.
Widespread severe storms are not expected at this time.
- Heat index values will reach the upper 90s to low 100s Sunday.
Areas west of the Cumberland Plateau could have afternoon heat index values topping 105 at times next week.
SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Sunday Night) Issued at 1037 PM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026
Another day, more storms.
This very summer-time pattern continued today with pretty decent coverage of showers and storms, a couple of which led to some fairly significant flash flooding.
The downside is without the passage of a front to help time out when storms may occur, we're at the mercy of outflows from storms that develop, fall apart and spread out across the mid-state.
This makes for difficult forecasting.
With storms over for the day, look for quiet conditions for the rest of the night and a few patches of fog after midnight.
As we finish up the weekend tomorrow, I think we can expect at least one more day of conditions similar to what we've seen the last 4 or 5 days -- warm and humid conditions with thunderstorms that develop early in the afternoon, then spread around the area.
All of these storms will be outflow dependent as far as who sees them, but if you do see them, there will be the risk of gusty winds (40-50 mph) and heavy rainfall that could lead to flash flooding.
Please keep this in mind if you have outdoor plans tomorrow.
LONG TERM
(Monday through next Sunday) Issued at 1037 PM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026
The start of the week may very well bring a slight change in this monotonous storm-filled pattern we've been in. The driving feature involved in this will be the upper level ridges we've been pinched between for the last week.
This has kept the hotter temperatures at- bay, but led to more storms.
Monday through Wednesday, we could start to see more influence from the Bermuda ridge retrograding into the southeast US. This would mean less (not zero) thunderstorm coverage, but hotter and more humid conditions.
Heat index values have been in the upper 90s to low 100s while we've had all of these storms.
Monday through Wednesday afternoons could see us reach 105 in several places west of the Cumberland Plateau.
After Wednesday, it's kind of a crap-shoot.
Models diverge just enough to have fairly significant solution differences.
GFS is leaning more towards a northwest flow aloft which would mean more thunderstorms for the second half of the week.
The Euro says more upper ridging influences which would mean continued hotter conditions and less storms.
At this point, the NBM has not chosen a winner, so we'll have to work out the late-week details over the next couple of days.