Move To Shelter Quickly
Saturday, August 8, 2026 · 8:33 PM
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Scattered afternoon and early evening showers and storms will form each day. Heavy downpours with local flash flooding will be the main concern. A few of the stronger storms may produce wind gusts of forty to fifty miles per hour and frequent lightning. This could bring down a few limbs and cause scattered power outages. Widespread severe storms are not expected at this time. Heat index values will reach the upper nineties to low one hundreds each day. Some areas could have heat index values topping one hundred five at times next week. ONE! TWO! THREE! FOUR! Northwest counties, your streak is done! Disturbance moving from the west! Unstable air, moisture in place! Pressure rising in my chest! Forty to sixty percent chance! Pop-up cells! Severe advance! Skies grow dark! The air turns thick! Lightning strikes! Pop up quick! MOVE TO SHELTER QUICKLY! MOVE TO SHELTER QUICKLY! MOVE TO SHELTER QUICKLY! MOVE TO SHELTER QUICKLY! Forty to fifty mile gusts! Tree limbs snapping in the wind! Local pockets flooding out! Where the downpours begin! Late night fog will hold the ground! Heat index ninety-nine bound! TOO MUCH RAIN! SHORT PERIOD OF TIME! POWER OUTAGES! LINE BY LINE! FLOODING! FLOODING! MOVE TO SHELTER QUICKLY! MOVE TO SHELTER QUICKLY! MOVE TO SHELTER QUICKLY! MOVE TO SHELTER QUICKLY! Taper off tonight! Late night fog! Move inside! MOVE INSIDE! CLEAR THE FIELD!
The forecast discussion
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 830 PM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026
- Scattered afternoon and early evening showers and storms will form each day.
Heavy downpours with local flash flooding will be the main concern.
- A few of the stronger storms may produce wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph and frequent lightning.
This could bring down a few limbs and cause scattered power outages.
Widespread severe storms are not expected at this time.
- Heat index values will reach the upper 90s to low 100s each day.
Some areas could have heat index values topping 105 at times next week.
SHORT TERM
(Rest of today through Sunday) Issued at 1120 AM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026
It will be another hot, humid, and unsettled day with scattered showers and storms.
Over the past few days, our northwest counties have not seen any storms, but today will be different.
We expect storms to be scattered across the entire area (40 to 60 percent chances) as a disturbance comes in from the west, working with already unstable and humid conditions in place.
The storm parameters are very similar to the past several days.
Not everybody will get rain, but some of us will get too much in a short period of time resulting in small pockets of flash flooding.
The stronger storms will contain 40 to 50 mph gusts and frequent lightning.
In summer storms, it is not uncommon to see a few falling limbs and scattered power outages.
Storms will pop up quickly, so if you are outdoors and skies darken, it would be a good idea to move to shelter quickly.
Storms will taper off this evening, but thanks to some energy from the disturbance, maybe not quite as quickly as the past couple of evenings.
Areas that receive rain are likely to have late night fog.
Coverage of storms will be a little less Sunday (20 to 50 percent), but overall still the same scenario with pockets of local flooding and gusty winds where storms occur.
LONG TERM
(Sunday Night through next Saturday) Issued at 1120 AM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026
Heading into Monday and Tuesday, upper level ridging will become a little stronger as the big, hot ridge from out west bridges across to the persistent Bermuda high.
This will bump temperatures up a little while slightly reducing shower and storm coverage (10 percent northwest to 40 percent southeast).
Heat index values look marginal for heat headlines, but caution is advised with Heat Risk levels reaching level 3 out of 4 (Major) for most areas.
Heat headlines may be issued for some areas west of the Plateau over the next couple of days if forecast data trend hotter.
Going through the week, it will stay hot and humid with daily chances for showers and storms.
There are some important model differences that could impact the forecast late week.
Looking at LREF clustering data, we see big differences emerging between the GFS and ECMWF groups.
The GFS is trending toward a broad eastern trough with the potential for increased storminess and less heat while the ECMWF camp is building up the ridge across the southern states and TN Valley.
This would mean lower storm chances and hotter conditions with temps well into the 90s.
Time will tell, but neither scenario would be terribly out of line for August.