Overperforming Rain
Monday, November 2, 2026 · 10:28 PM
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Dry and warm during the day tomorrow, but soaking rains will arrive tomorrow night into Wednesday. Low risk ten to twenty percent of Flash Flooding tomorrow night, especially for areas along and west of Interstate sixty-five. Warmest temperatures will occur tomorrow with a gradual cooling trend afterwards. Overnight lows in the thirties likely this weekend. Compressional heating pushing temperatures up high A couple degrees warmer under Tennessee sky Upper level ridge getting shoved out of the way Deep upper level low is coming in to play Precipitable water one point seven to one point eight inches Two to three standard deviations at the fences! Seven hundred millibar jet running right along the line Western half of Middle Tennessee, running out of time! High Resolution Ensemble Forecast kicking up the threat Three-hour probability of three inches wet! Seven hundred millibar jet parallel to the front! Moisture in the column giving everything we want! Dickson, Williamson, Maury, take cover my friend! Watch out for overperforming rain! Zero zulu model runs focusing the strike Lewis and Dickson, tell me what it's like! Weather Prediction Center showing one to two inches deep Slight risk of excessive rainfall while you sleep Instability is low, keeping watches at bay But the moisture in the engine is gonna make us pay! Seven hundred millibar jet parallel to the front! Moisture in the column giving everything we want! Dickson, Williamson, Maury, take cover my friend! Watch out for overperforming rain! Soaking rains tomorrow night! Overperforming rain! Watch out for overperforming rain!
The forecast discussion
NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 1021 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026
- Dry and warm during the day tomorrow, but soaking rains will arrive tomorrow night into Wednesday.
- Low risk (10-20%) of Flash Flooding tomorrow night, especially for areas along and west of I-65.
- Warmest temperatures will occur tomorrow with a gradual cooling trend afterwards.
Overnight lows in the 30s likely this weekend.
SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Wednesday Night) Issued at 1021 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026
A mix of high and mid-level clouds at forecast time, but many are seeing lots of stars right now.
I think the biggest change is that it's about 10 degrees warmer than 24 hours ago across the whole mid- state thanks to an upper level ridge over the southeast US and a southeasterly boundary layer flow.
As we move into tomorrow, we should see very similar temperatures to what we saw today and maybe even a couple degrees warmer.
Why is that?
Well, our next weather maker will be on our doorstep tomorrow afternoon.
With the approach of the front, which will get in here tomorrow evening, compressional heating might push afternoon highs up a little more than they otherwise would.
In the end, it isn't the temperatures that have my attention, it's the QPF potential with the front.
We'll get there.
As it stands right now, a deep upper level low that is bringing active weather to the center of the country will push the upper ridge currently over us out of the way and we're going to get a pretty significant push of moisture tomorrow.
PWs by this time tomorrow evening are expected to be in the 1.7 to 1.8" range -- potentially 2 to 3 std dev from normal.
That's significant for this time of the year.
As the front pushes in here tomorrow evening, several models show the development of a 700 mb jet parallel to the front across the western half of Middle TN. The combination of all of these components has my attention.
Fortunately, instability is low.
If we were looking at a bunch of convective activity, I would probably throw a Flash Flood Watch out for the western half of the area.
The interesting thing is, NBM probabilities for 3+ inches of rain are VERY low (less than 10%).
That said, the (final run of the) HREF and the newest REFS do show 3-hr PMMs of 3 inches or more at 10%.
The persistence of this (the 12Z run showed the same thing) is what has me a little concerned, especially as both 12Z/Mon and 00Z/Tue runs show a focus over Dickson/Williamson/Maury/Lewis counties tomorrow night.
Even with current WPC QPFs showing 1 to 2 inches, I would pay special attention in those areas mentioned above for potential significant overperforming precipitation -- especially since WPC already has this area in a slight risk for excessive rainfall tomorrow night.
LONG TERM
(Thursday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1021 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026
After tomorrow night's rainfall, models diverge quickly.
GFS wants to bring in another chance for rain Thursday night into Friday, but the Euro is dry.
The NBM seems to be leaning towards the latter.
Temperatures will moderate away from the warmer temperatures of today and tomorrow and by this weekend, afternoon highs will be in the low to mid 60s with morning lows in the 30s and 40s.
I'll mention it here, but this is may change -- we could start off next week with a couple of spots falling in the upper 20s for morning lows.