Great Lakes Low
Monday, November 2, 2026 · 5:46 PM
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Dry Monday and Tuesday, then another soaking rainfall will arrive during the middle of the week. Warmest temperatures will occur on Tuesday, with a gradual cooling trend afterwards. Become cool over the weekend with overnight lows in the thirties, frost is likely. Eleven forty-nine A.M.! Short wave— Mid-level subsidence taking— Inversion holds low clouds below! Mixing at twenty miles per hour— Highs low to mid seventies! Gradient snaps! Afternoon sun— Twenty miles per hour gusts— Upper level ridge pushes east— Four corners troff lifting out! Deepening— Great Lakes low moving east— Cold front pushed south! Tuesday afternoon! Pressure gradient— Breezy winds twenty to thirty miles per hour! Highs— Mid to upper seventies! Rain after six P.M.— Spreading east during the evening— Lines break off mid-thought— Front approaches! Northern Plains! Deepening low! Cold front pushing south! Thirty miles per hour! The boundary breaks! Pressure collapses on the ridge— Winds tear through the valley! Driven by the Great Lakes low! Driven by the Great Lakes low! Precipitation after six P.M.— Moving west to east— Subsidence inversion— Snapping!
The forecast discussion
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 521 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026
- Dry Monday and Tuesday, then another soaking rainfall will arrive during the middle of the week.
- Warmest temperatures will occur on Tuesday, with a gradual cooling trend afterwards.
- Become cool over the weekend with overnight lows in the 30s, frost is likely.
SHORT TERM
(Rest of today through Tuesday) Issued at 1149 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2026
Short wave ridge is starting to build into the area and mid-level substance is taking place.
Low clouds and even some light showers over the northwest are below this substance inversion.
Dry air will continue to build in along with afternoon mixing, this will help to erode the low level clouds and that will lead to some afternoon sun.
We are still seeing an elevated pressure gradient and that will lead to some wind gusts up to 20 mph through the afternoon.
Highs will be mild pushing into the low to mid 70s.
We will see a quiet start to Tuesday as the upper level ridge pushes east.
A trough will lift out of the four corners region with a deepening low over the northern Plains.
That low will move east into the Great Lakes Tuesday pushing a cold front south.
As the low deepens we will see an increasing pressure gradient and breezy winds will develop Tuesday afternoon with wind gusts up to 20-30 mph. Precipitation ahead of the cold front will start to move into the western part of the area after 6 PM and will continue to spread east during the evening.
Highs Tuesday will be in the mid to upper 70s.
LONG TERM
(Tuesday Night through next Monday) Issued at 1149 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2026
A cold front will be working east through Middle TN Tuesday night into Tuesday afternoon.
The upper level trough will become a closed off upper level low over the Great Lakes Tuesday night and this will slow the cold front as it pushes east through Middle TN. This will bring a high chance for rain Tuesday night through Tuesday morning with showers lingering over the eastern part of the area into the early evening.
Breezy winds will continue ahead of the cold front with gusts up 30 mph. The thunderstorm threat does look to remain low with this front with CAPE generally remaining low.
The highest CAPE will be Wednesday afternoon from Nashville east and may reach up to 300 j/kg.
This is a dynamic low and there will be plenty of wind shear, if we end up seeing a little more CAPE we could get some gusty winds with any thunderstorms but at this point that looks very unlikely.
This will be another good soaking rain with rain totals generally ranging from 1-2".
There may be some localized totals up to 3" from Clarksville to Lafayette southwest to Lawrenceburg.
Upper level flow will then turn more zonal for the rest of the week.
This will keep the weather quiet with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
A short wave trough and push of cold air will make it to the Great Lakes over the weekend.
Some of that cold air will make it here and will bring below normal highs with them falling into the lower 60s.
Overnight lows will also be cold falling into the 30s and a frost will be likely starting Saturday night.
Lows below 32 are also looking likely for the Plateau starting Saturday night.