In The Sweet Spot
Sunday, November 1, 2026 · 11:15 AM
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Medium to high rain chances this afternoon, mainly east of Interstate sixty-five. Dry Monday into Tuesday before a soaking rainfall arrives middle of the week. A shortwave troff overspreads the area tonight. Rain rates are light, the thunder remains far south. Forecast soundings show a saturated profile through the column. Precipitable water sits above the ninetieth percentile at one point two inches. A steady drizzle falls across the county lines. Temperatures settle in the low sixties. The moisture pulls away by Monday morning, Leaving a brief calm between two systems. Dual low pressure ejects from the Rockies, Tracking along the Interstate forty corridor. The southern low deepens to occlusion, Centered over West Tennessee by Wednesday morning. We are trapped in the quiet middle ground, Awaiting the next weather maker. The axis holds along the coast, The clouds collapse above the road, We wait between the northern track and southern storm, In the sweet spot. FIFTY TO SIXTY PERCENT PROBABILITY! GREATER THAN TWO INCHES OF RAIN! THE SYSTEM COLLAPSES INTO OCCLUSION! BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROFFING TAKES OVER! Wraparound showers through Friday morning. Cool and quiet at last. In the sweet spot.
The forecast discussion
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 1108 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026
- Medium to high rain chances this afternoon, mainly east of I-65.
- Dry Monday into Tuesday before a soaking rainfall arrives middle of the week.
SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Monday Night) Issued at 1025 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026
Showers are continuing to overspread the area this evening associated with a shortwave trough.
These rain rates are very light and the nearest thunder is along the Gulf Coast.
Expect this activity to increase in coverage throughout the day on Sunday, remaining at a steady drizzle.
Forecast soundings depict a saturated profile through the column with very little instability.
Combined with PWATs above the 90th percentile around 1.2", expect a steady widespread rain Sunday morning with occasional downpours and rumbles of thunder, especially west of I-65. The main impact from this rain will be a much cooler day on Sunday with temperatures even a bit below normal in the low 60s.
After the shortwave and its resultant moisture pulls away, Monday looks dry and mild in between systems.
LONG TERM
(Tuesday through next Sunday) Issued at 1025 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026
The majority of Tuesday is also in the transitional period awaiting the next weather maker.
Dual low pressure systems are slated to eject from the Rockies on Tuesday morning: one with a trajectory over the Great Lakes and another with a track along the I-40 corridor.
The southernmost surface low will be more impactful for Middle TN, but it looks like we are in the sweet spot in between favorable severe weather ingredients.
The Great Lakes system will be displaced too far north to cause any impacts.
Forecast surface analyses depict the southern system deepening to the point of occlusion by the time it reaches the Mississippi River on Wednesday morning, centered over west TN. This will help keep the axis of highest instability confined to the Gulf Coast during FROPA and limit our severe weather potential.
Again, the main impact from this next system will be another good soaking for Middle TN. Storm total QPF probabilities of rainfall > 2" are about 50-60% per the LREF next week.
As the occluded low migrates off to the east on Thursday and Friday, wraparound showers from this same system will continue to impact parts of Middle TN for several days.
Broad upper level troughing per the LREF supports much cooler temperatures (finally near normal in the mid 60s) and 20-40% PoPs through at least Friday morning.
We finally dry back out on Friday evening but remain cool.