Marginal Fire Danger

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1207 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

- Warm, sunny days and cool, clear nights will continue through the week.

- No rain is expected through at least Friday night, but the weather pattern will begin to shift next weekend.

- Drought conditions will continue to worsen in the near-term.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Tuesday Night) Issued at 1024 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

A surface ridge bisects Middle Tennessee this evening, with winds having gone light or calm across the region.

This means our evening temperatures are dropping quickly given the perfect radiation cooling conditions.

Once again, widespread fog is expected overnight as dew point spreads shrink to near zero.

And tomorrow looks to be a carbon copy of today.

Afternoon RH values will remain quite low, so there is some concern about an elevated fire danger given that available fuels continue to dry out, but surface winds will remain light throughout the week, so this will prevent the danger from become anything more than marginal.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through next Monday) Issued at 1024 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Temperatures will gradually warm throughout the week as high pressure maintains its dominance across Middle Tennessee.

By week's end, the upper ridge will flatten out, and this will enable us to transition a more unsettled weather pattern by the weekend.

At this time, it appears that our next rain chances will arrive on Halloween, but better rain chances will develop Saturday night and Sunday and continue into at least the early part of next week.

So while we expect drought continues to worsen even more this week, perhaps the increased probability of meaningful rainfall can at least put the breaks on any additional worsening after this week.