Fires Spread Fast
Tuesday, October 20, 2026 · 6:03 PM
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Mild, sunny days and cool, clear nights will continue through the weekend. No rain for the foreseeable future. Drought conditions are going to worsen. Ten thirty-one A.M. Central Daylight Time! Upper air soundings at— Broad midlevel ridge over the Continental United States! Column extremely dry at— Low levels! Radar returns from the incoming— altocumulus deck— Will not reach the ground! Northwesterly flow aloft! Mid-seventies surface heat for— Three days straight! Issued October twenty, twenty twenty-six! Persistence forecast— What you see is what you get for— Seven days minimum! Less than five percent chance of— Rain! Dry air! Dry fuels! Elevated risk at— Zero hundred hours! NO MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE! DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO WORSEN! ANY IGNITION TAKES THE ENTIRE FIELD! THE RIDGE IS LOCKING US IN! The midlevel ridge will not collapse! Seven days ahead, no rain in sight! Dry air, dry fuels, our guard is up— Fires spread fast! Fires spread fast! Ten thirty-one A.M.! Five percent! Zero rain! It spreads fast!
The forecast discussion
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 558 PM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026
- Mild, sunny days and cool, clear nights will continue through the weekend.
- No rain for the foreseeable future.
Drought conditions are going to worsen.
SHORT TERM
(Rest of today through Wednesday) Issued at 1031 AM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026
Another cool, dry, and sunny day is underway across Middle TN. This morning's upper air soundings placed a broad midlevel ridge over the eastern CONUS, resulting in this prolonged period of dry weather.
The column is extremely dry in the low levels, which will prevent any light radar returns from the incoming altoCu deck from reaching the ground.
Northwesterly flow aloft will help keep moisture very low while abundant sunshine heats the surface to the mid 70s for the next few days.
While this is quite pleasant for the general population, this combination of warm and very dry air also creates elevated fire danger, which is our primary concern for the next week or so.
LONG TERM
(Wednesday Night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1031 AM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026
This is a persistence forecast like no other; what you see is what you get for at least the next 7 days.
With ongoing drought and no rain in sight, dry fuels and dry air have our guard up for fire danger for the rest of this week and maybe even into the weekend.
The midlevel ridge over the eastern CONUS will persist for the foreseeable future, resulting in mild days and cool nights with less than 5% chance of rain.
Again, lovely for most people but comes as a double-edged sword with a risk of fire danger.
Any fires that start will have a much easier time spreading under these conditions.
Drought WILL continue to worsen across the state and fire danger will likely increase the longer we go without rain.