Coolest of the Fall
Saturday, October 17, 2026 · 6:27 AM
Watch and listen
Lyrics
Cool and dry weekend with patchy frost Saturday night and Sunday night. Gradual warming trend next week with highs mostly in the seventies. Dry all next week, so drought conditions are expected to worsen. Cold front cleared the plateau early Friday morning Now the mercury is dropping without a single warning Twenty degrees cooler than twenty-four hours back Breezy northwest winds riding on the track Gusting over twenty miles per hour in the breeze Dry air settling, bringing down the trees No burning allowed, the hazard taking hold As the daytime high surrenders to the cold Winds diminish by the late afternoon Underneath a dry and hollow October moon Radiational cooling taking total command Over every single valley in the land Dry high pressure overhead! The heat is dead! The heat is dead! Mid fifties to lower sixties call! This is the coolest of the fall! Light winds tonight under clear blue skies Watch the ground temperature drop as the sun dies Dipping into the thirties when the night turns deep Patchy frost crawling while the valleys sleep High pressure parked, staying locked in place Warming back to seventy, leaving no trace Dry all week long, no moisture coming in Where the drought grows thick and the grass wears thin FROST! Patchy in the valleys! Patchy on the plateau! Dipping in the thirties! Watch the mercury go low! Coolest of the fall... Coolest of the fall... Clear skies tonight. Dipping to thirty.
The forecast discussion
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 622 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026
- Cool and dry weekend with patchy frost Saturday night and Sunday night.
- Gradual warming trend next week with highs mostly in the 70s.
- Dry all next week, so drought conditions are expected to worsen.
SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Sunday Night) Issued at 1045 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026
The cold front that moved through Middle TN Friday morning had brought an end to record-breaking heat, giving us our first taste of real fall weather.
Temperatures this evening were running 20 degrees cooler than 24 hours ago, and the cooler, breezy trend will continue.
A few very light showers along the Plateau will move out soon with partly to mostly cloudy skies overnight into Saturday.
Breezy conditions will continue with gusts over 20 mph at times.
The winds will finally diminish by late Saturday afternoon as very dry high pressure settles overhead.
Daytime Saturday will be the coolest of the fall season so far with temperatures making it only to the mid 50s to lower 60s!
The breezy and dry conditions will enhance the fire risk, so burning is discouraged, and likely banned in some areas.
Good radiational cooling will be in place for Saturday night with light winds and clear skies.
This will allow many areas to dip into the 30s.
Patchy frost will develop, mainly in valleys and along the Plateau.
Daytime Sunday will be a nice fall day with sunshine, light winds, and highs in the 60s.
Patchy frost will be possible again Sunday night.
LONG TERM
(Monday through next Saturday) Issued at 1045 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026
Dry high pressure will stay in place through the week.
As a ridge builds overhead, daytime highs will gradually warm through the 70s, reaching around 80 by the end of the week.
Nights will be clear and continued chilly.