Only The Dust
Thursday, October 15, 2026 · 10:39 PM
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A breezy cold front will arrive Friday morning, bringing much cooler temperatures for the weekend. The Cumberland Plateau and low lying areas west of the Plateau will see the first light frost of the season early Sunday morning. There are only very low rain chances with the front on Friday and no rain chances after Friday, so drought conditions are expected to worsen. Friday morning at the doorstep, sky turns overcast Cold front creeping in real fast Kentucky Tennessee state line border Atmosphere out of order Moisture deprived, completely drained Barely a drop of rain sustained Mid sixties northwest, mid seventies southeast A shifting boundary, a barren beast Not looking at any meaningful quantitative precipitation forecast Just a few hundredths of an inch that will never last Break out your jackets for the weekend chill The air turns cold, the land stands still Breezy front cutting through the state Deprived of moisture, we seal our fate No rain coming down to break the rust Nothing left behind but only the dust Real air mass change coming Saturday night Lows in the thirties holding on tight Forties in the lowlands, frost on the grass Upper seventies coming back way too fast High pressure settles for the work week grind Leaving every drop of water behind Drought conditions worsening on the ground Not a single shower sound ZERO DEPRAVED DEPRIVED NO MOISTURE SURVIVED CUMBERLAND PLATEAU FROST ON THE RIDGE BURNING THE BOUNDARY, BURNING THE BRIDGE Break out your jackets The drought worsens Only the dust Only the dust
The forecast discussion
NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 1039 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026
- A breezy cold front will arrive Friday morning, bringing much cooler temperatures for the weekend.
- The Cumberland Plateau and low lying areas west of the Plateau will see the first light frost of the season early Sunday morning.
- There are only very low rain chances with the front on Friday and no rain chances after Friday, so drought conditions are expected to worsen.
SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Saturday Night) Issued at 1039 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026
Friday will be more overcast than today was with the arrival of the cold front to our doorstep.
Even though the cold front is mostly deprived of moisture, there is a low chance for some showers on the KY/TN state line.
Not looking at any meaningful QPF with these chances, but a few hundredths are possible.
Highs tomorrow will be varied over the area: in the mid 60s in the NW to the mid 70s in the SE.
The real change in air mass will be felt Saturday morning and into the weekend.
Highs will be in the 60s, with morning lows in the 30s and 40s.
So break out those jackets if you haven't already, you'll be needing them this weekend.
LONG TERM
(Sunday through next Friday) Issued at 1039 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026
The colder airmass will have some spots on the Cumberland Plateau looking at their first frost of the season Sunday morning.
After the cold front passes, high pressure will settle in for the work week, unfortunately warming our temperatures back into the upper 70s by mid week.
Fortunately, we look to stay around seasonal normals for temperatures, and not get as anomalously warm as we were this week.
The forecast has no precipitation after Sunday, so this is bad news for the ongoing drought in Middle Tennessee.