Extra Fall Heat
Tuesday, October 13, 2026 · 6:53 PM
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Warm weather through Thursday with high temperatures well above-normal. Record highs possible through Thursday. Medium to high rain and storm chances Wednesday afternoon and evening, primarily for areas north of Interstate forty. A cold front will arrive on Friday bringing much cooler temperatures into this weekend. Ha ha! Oh yeah! Check it out now! Well now tell me who ordered all this mid-October fire Got an upper-level ridge ridin' high on desire Parked over the Southeast, squashed down at the top National Blend of Models says the heat won't stop Ninety to ninety-one degrees on the dial today Fifteen degrees above normal, what can I say Got lapse rates at seven point zero in the sky North of Interstate forty, watch the clouds roll by WE ARE BLOWING PAST THE OLD RECORD HIGH NINETEEN FORTY-SEVEN WRITTEN IN THE SKY WHOA! SOMEBODY TELL ME WHY WHO ORDERED ALL THIS EXTRA FALL HEAT Yeah, Wednesday afternoon could bring a little surprise A rumble of thunder right before your eyes Just a squashed little ridge lettin' showers slip in A low chance of gusty winds spinnin' up a grin Surface heating's cooking up instability But this ridge is gonna win out eventually Alright! Haha! Woo! WE ARE BLOWING PAST THE OLD RECORD HIGH NINETEEN FORTY-SEVEN WRITTEN IN THE SKY WHOA! SOMEBODY TELL ME WHY WHO ORDERED ALL THIS EXTRA FALL HEAT WE ARE BLOWING PAST THE OLD RECORD HIGH NINETEEN FORTY-SEVEN WRITTEN IN THE SKY WHOA! SOMEBODY TELL ME WHY WHO ORDERED ALL THIS EXTRA FALL HEAT Hahaha, yeah! That's right! Friday brings the front, but today we burn! Whoa-oh-oh! Extra fall heat!
The forecast discussion
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 653 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026
- Warm weather through Thursday with high temperatures well above-normal.
Record highs possible through Thursday.
- Medium to high rain/storm chances Wednesday afternoon and evening, primarily for areas north of I-40.
- A cold front will arrive on Friday bringing much cooler temperatures into this weekend.
SHORT TERM
(Rest of today through Thursday) Issued at 1129 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026
Who ordered all this extra fall heat?
I'd like to talk to them.
Whoever it was brought an upper level ridge into the southeast US yesterday and it's going to be parked over us for the next few days.
We're currently forecasting record breaking highs today, tomorrow and Thursday at Nashville (BNA).
Not by much, but still.
Today's record high is 88, tomorrow's is 89 and so is Thursday's -- all set in 1947. NBM suggests afternoon highs of 90-91 through Thursday -- and all about 15 degrees above normal.
So that's fun.
Now, the ridge isn't a big north-south amplified high.
It's a little squashed and this will open the door for areas along and north of I-40 (especially the northwest quadrant) to have medium to high rain chances tomorrow afternoon and into the evening hours.
These will mostly be showers, but I can't rule out a rumble of thunder and gusty winds with any storm.
This is a very low chance, but worth mentioning as mid-level lapse rates are decent (~7.0) and plenty of instability will be around due to the heating I mentioned earlier.
On the whole, the ridge will win out and most of Middle TN will remain dry tomorrow.
LONG TERM
(Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1129 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026
Once we get through Thursday, a dry front is going to deliver autumn back to the mid-state.
Models are very consistent bringing this front through here on Friday and providing a break in this heat.
The weekend looks dry and cool -- maybe 10 degree below seasonal norms.
Yep, I said "a break" in the heat.
We may not be done with it yet.
The cooler temperatures want to stay, but models are relatively consistent bringing yet another upper ridge into the southeast US next week and providing above normal temperatures once again.
Obviously, that's a week out, but fall doesn't look like it's here to stay and other than the rain in the north tomorrow, continued dry conditions will be with us until *at least* this time next week.