First Frost
Monday, October 12, 2026 · 10:35 PM
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Warm, dry weather through Thursday with high temperatures well above-normal. Record highs possible through Thursday. Low rain/storm chances Wednesday and Wednesday night, primarily for areas north of Interstate forty. A cold front will arrive on Friday bringing much cooler temperatures into this weekend. Southwesterly flow! High pressure in control! Another record broken as the heat takes its toll! Fifty to low sixty degrees in the dark Clear skies burning every field, every park Making runs at the record, pushing mid-week high Not a single drop of rain in a hollowed-out sky North of Interstate forty gets a shower or two Not a drought-busting storm, just passing through We crushed it in Nashville, matched Crossville heat Now the thermal boundary shifts down the street! Eight hundred fifty millibar layer holding tight Ushering the warmth through the middle of the night Tension on the surface, waiting for the crack There is no turning back! We burn in the ridge till the atmosphere breaks We count down the hours till the cold front wakes Dropping fifteen degrees Celsius low Sunday morning brings the first frost! Friday swings heavy with a punch to the chest Cold air diving from the north-northwest Highs in the sixties, lows down in the thirties Wiping out the fever of the summer-time worries Maine low pulling up a trailing front line Wetting rain dropping just in time Watch the Plateau as the temperature dies Under clear, open skies! FIFTEEN! Drop fifteen degrees at eight hundred fifty! Crush the heat! Break the ridge! Drop fifteen degrees! Fall is here to stay! Lows in the thirties. Highs in the sixties. Clear skies over Middle Tennessee. The first frost.
The forecast discussion
NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 1035 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026
- Warm, dry weather through Thursday with high temperatures well above-normal.
Record highs possible through Thursday.
- Low rain/storm chances Wednesday and Wednesday night, primarily for areas north of I-40.
- A cold front will arrive on Friday bringing much cooler temperatures into this weekend.
SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Wednesday Night) Issued at 1035 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026
Clear skies and lows in the 50s and low 60s tonight across Middle Tennessee.
High pressure will continue to build in for the time being, resulting in clear to mostly clear skies.
Unfortunately, this also means we will continue to make runs at temperature records through mid-week.
This is because as the ridging builds in, southwesterly flow will increase over the next few days, ushering in more warm air into the area.
We crushed a record today in Nashville, and matched one in Crossville, so what's a few more, right?
LONG TERM
(Thursday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1035 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026
Once we get into mid-week, we start seeing the return of (low) rain chances.
A front stretching all the way up to a low pressure system in Maine will start to make its way into the Ohio river valley, which will increase our rain chances north of I-40. These aren't drought busting rain chances by any means, but enough for some areas to see some wetting rain.
What's more eye-catching is the cold front that lags behind this moisture and is expected to swing through at the end of the week.
This cold front is looking like a real taste of fall, dropping our 850mb temperatures by 15 degrees Celsius.
At the surface, that translates to highs in the 60s/70s and lows in the 30s and 40s for the weekend.
Sunday morning, we could see our first frost of the season on the Cumberland Plateau.
We will have to keep watching and hope that this time, fall is here to stay.