Run For Record Highs
Monday, October 12, 2026 · 1:22 PM
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Warm, dry weather through Thursday with high temperatures well above-normal. Record highs possible through Thursday. Low rain and storm chances Wednesday and Wednesday night, primarily for areas north of Interstate forty. A cold front will arrive on Friday bringing much cooler temperatures into this weekend. Well, look who stepped into the Mid South today The fog is mixing out and sliding away Got high pressure strutting across the Plateau Drier air is setting up a hell of a show Highs deep in the eighties, yeah, you know how I roll This ridging in the upper levels taking control Got a southwesterly breeze blowing through the trees Brought the heat to its knees, doing whatever I please! Weak warm advection turning up the heat Got that sunshine swagger walking down the street Amplify the ridge, set the sky on fire We're taking this temperature higher! So crank up the heat, baby, touch the sky! We’re turning up the sun, watching mercury fly! North of Interstate forty might see a stray shower But nothing’s gonna stop this mid-October power! Yeah, we’re gonna make a run for record highs! Wednesday and Thursday, yeah, the party don't stop Holding onto the heat till the temperatures pop A front stretching east across the Ohio valley Trying to mess with my vibe in the alley No chance, baby! The ridge is staying real tight Got prominent weather shining warm and bright Just dry conditions and a cocky little grin Before that Friday polar front comes rolling in! Weak warm advection turning up the heat Got that sunshine swagger walking down the street Amplify the ridge, set the sky on fire We're taking this temperature higher! So crank up the heat, baby, touch the sky! We’re turning up the sun, watching mercury fly! North of Interstate forty might see a stray shower But nothing’s gonna stop this mid-October power! Yeah, we’re gonna make a run for record highs! Yeah, Friday’s gonna bring a shortwave troff drop Lows in the thirties, but tonight we don't stop! Upper Cumberland cooling down to thirty-nine degrees But right now, baby, feel that southwesterly breeze! Yeah! Make a run for record highs! Record highs!
The forecast discussion
NEW KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 121 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026
- Warm, dry weather through Thursday with high temperatures well above-normal.
Record highs possible through Thursday.
- Low rain/storm chances Wednesday and Wednesday night, primarily for areas north of I-40.
- A cold front will arrive on Friday bringing much cooler temperatures into this weekend.
SHORT TERM
(Rest of today through Tuesday) Issued at 1145 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026
Mid- to upper-level ridging is building across the Mid South in the wake of an exiting low pressure system.
Morning fog and low clouds have mixed out and we're quickly warming this afternoon under high pressure and drier air.
Highs well into the 80s are forecast west of the Plateau today.
Ridging is expected to amplify/strengthen tomorrow along with an increasing southwesterly breeze at the surface.
With dry conditions and weak warm advection temperatures will make a run for record highs.
LONG TERM
(Tuesday Night through next Monday) Issued at 1145 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026
Wednesday and Thursday will remain warm overall with continuation of temperatures well above-normal.
Record highs will also be possible on these days assuming clouds or a stray shower/storm don't mess things up. We do have low rain/storm chances on Wednesday, mainly for areas north of I-40, as a front and moisture axis stretch west-to-east across the Ohio Valley.
Otherwise, ridging will remain prominent across the Southeast and will influence our very warm temperatures and overall dry conditions.
A big cool-down is looming on Friday with the arrival of a polar cold front extending from a potent northern stream shortwave trough.
Models suggest this front will not coexist with the aforementioned moisture axis mid week, so rain chances are very low with frontal passage on Friday unless moisture values can increase.
Nonetheless, temperatures will make a big drop Friday night into Saturday morning.
Lows in the 40s in 50s are forecast for the weekend with upper 30s possible Saturday night across the Upper Cumberland.
At this time there's no meaningful rainfall forecast, or any severe storms, throughout the forecast period.
Good news on the storms, but not good news for worsening drought.