No Meaningful Rainfall
Monday, October 12, 2026 · 12:24 PM
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Warm, dry weather through Thursday with high temperatures well above normal. Record highs possible Tuesday to Thursday. Low rain or storm chances Wednesday and Wednesday night, primarily for areas north of Interstate forty. A cold front will arrive on Friday bringing much cooler temperatures into this weekend. Issued at eleven forty-five A.M. Central Daylight Time— Mid to upper level ridging builds! Exiting low— Mixed out! Morning fog at twelve seventeen P.M.— Quickly warming! Drier air! Highs well into the eighties west of the Plateau! Southwesterly breeze at the surface— Weak warm advection— We run! We run for records! Wednesday! Thursday! Above normal! Unless clouds— unless a stray shower— North of Interstate forty— Ohio Valley front stretching west to east— A potent northern stream shortwave troff! Looming Friday! Temperatures drop! Upper thirties Saturday night in the Upper Cumberland! Drought worsening! No moisture axis! Friday night! Forties! Fifties! The atmosphere locked! Stalled! Dry! The ridge expands across the south! Heat builds up and snaps the thread! The sky is empty, zero relief! No meaningful rainfall! No meaningful rainfall! Upper thirties! Drought expands!
The forecast discussion
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 1217 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026
- Warm, dry weather through Thursday with high temperatures well above normal.
Record highs possible Tuesday-Thursday.
- Low rain/storm chances Wednesday and Wednesday night, primarily for areas north of I-40.
- A cold front will arrive on Friday bringing much cooler temperatures into this weekend.
SHORT TERM
(Rest of today through Tuesday) Issued at 1145 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026
Mid- to upper-level ridging is building across the Mid South in the wake of an exiting low pressure system.
Morning fog and low clouds have mixed out and we're quickly warming this afternoon under high pressure and drier air.
Highs well into the 80s are forecast west of the Plateau today.
Ridging is expected to amplify/strengthen tomorrow along with an increasing southwesterly breeze at the surface.
With dry conditions and weak warm advection temperatures will make a run for record highs.
LONG TERM
(Tuesday Night through next Monday) Issued at 1145 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026
Wednesday and Thursday will remain warm overall with continuation of temperatures well above-normal.
Record highs will also be possible on these days assuming clouds or a stray shower/storm don't mess things up. We do have low rain/storm chances on Wednesday, mainly for areas north of I-40, as a front and moisture axis stretch west-to-east across the Ohio Valley.
Otherwise, ridging will remain prominent across the Southeast and will influence our very warm temperatures and overall dry conditions.
A big cool-down is looming on Friday with the arrival of a polar cold front extending from a potent northern stream shortwave trough.
Models suggest this front will not coexist with the aforementioned moisture axis mid week, so rain chances are very low with frontal passage on Friday unless moisture values can increase.
Nonetheless, temperatures will make a big drop Friday night into Saturday morning.
Lows in the 40s in 50s are forecast for the weekend with upper 30s possible Saturday night across the Upper Cumberland.
At this time there's no meaningful rainfall forecast, or any severe storms, throughout the forecast period.
Good news on the storms, but not good news for worsening drought.