Moisture Starved
Tuesday, October 6, 2026 · 12:10 AM
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Dry weather expected through Friday with cool nights and warm days. Medium rain chances less than sixty percent this weekend. High pressure north! Air mass locked tight! Precipitable water zero point four to zero point five! Not enough vapor to muster a cloud! Night falls fast! Valleys drop low! Mid-forties screaming in the hollows below! Inverted surface troff rising up! Warm afternoons with a dry empty cup! Thursday comes creeping, a boundary in sight! Stripped of its rainfall, ready to fight! MOISTURE STARVED! MOISTURE STARVED! NO RAIN IN THE WIND! MOISTURE STARVED! Scooting to the east! The high steps aside! Broad northwesterly flow overhead! Breeze picks up, eighties on the march! The front moves through, leaving us parched! GULF MOISTURE WAITING! ADVECTION DELAYED! LESS THAN SIXTY PERCENT CHANCE! THE SYSTEM IS MADE! MOISTURE STARVED! MOISTURE STARVED! NO RAIN IN THE WIND! MOISTURE STARVED! Zero point four! Zero point five! Dry through Friday! Stay alive! MOISTURE STARVED!
The forecast discussion
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 1206 AM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026
- Dry weather expected through Friday with cool nights and warm days.
- Medium rain chances (<60%) this weekend.
SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Wednesday Night) Issued at 1100 PM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026
Middle Tennessee is situated in a much drier airmass today with a high pressure system now centered to the north.
PWs are generally in the 0.4-0.5" range, not even enough to muster clouds.
The dry air and calming winds will allow for efficient radiational cooling into Tuesday morning with lows in the mid 40s to low 50s.
Coolest locations will be in the valleys.
The next couple of afternoons will be warm with perhaps some clouds Tuesday should we get enough boundary layer moisture with a weak inverted surface trough.
Temperatures remain in an above-normal state overall.
LONG TERM
(Thursday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1100 PM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026
High pressure will scoot eastward by Thursday and a moisture starved shortwave/cold front is progged to move through the region Thursday.
This could perhaps get a breeze going while we warm well in to the 80s.
Otherwise, no rain is expected with this passing system.
Overall the pattern will continue to feature a broad northwesterly flow aloft and presence of high pressure and dry air through Friday.
However, guidance continues to suggest an influx of tropical moisture advecting into the region from the Gulf along with an associated low pressure system.
This favors medium rain chances with a few storms this weekend.