Into the Valleys
Monday, October 5, 2026 · 11:03 PM
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Dry weather expected through Friday with cool nights and warm days. Medium rain chances less than sixty percent this weekend. High pressure centered to the north. Clear skies holding over Middle Tennessee. A weak inverted surface troff. Calming winds tonight. The dry air mass settles in deep. Efficient radiational cooling takes the heat away. Lows dropping down into the mid forties to low fifties. Clear skies through the early morning hours. We watch the sky stay completely clear. Above normal warmth creeping back by afternoon. The silence spreads across the ridges. Deep down where the cold air sinks... Dry air locking in until the weekend comes. Cool nights turning into warm afternoons. The ground bleeds heat while we sink away. We fall into the valleys. ZERO POINT FOUR INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER! ZERO POINT FOUR TO ZERO POINT FIVE! NOT EVEN ENOUGH TO MUSTER CLOUDS! NOT EVEN ENOUGH TO MUSTER CLOUDS! Medium rain chances less than sixty percent. Into the valleys. Nothing left to cloud.
The forecast discussion
NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 1100 PM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026
- Dry weather expected through Friday with cool nights and warm days.
- Medium rain chances (<60%) this weekend.
SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Wednesday Night) Issued at 1100 PM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026
Middle Tennessee is situated in a much drier airmass today with a high pressure system now centered to the north.
PWs are generally in the 0.4-0.5" range, not even enough to muster clouds.
The dry air and calming winds will allow for efficient radiational cooling into Tuesday morning with lows in the mid 40s to low 50s.
Coolest locations will be in the valleys.
The next couple of afternoons will be warm with perhaps some clouds Tuesday should we get enough boundary layer moisture with a weak inverted surface trough.
Temperatures remain in an above-normal state overall.
LONG TERM
(Thursday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1100 PM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026
High pressure will scoot eastward by Thursday and a moisture starved shortwave/cold front is progged to move through the region Thursday.
This could perhaps get a breeze going while we warm well in to the 80s.
Otherwise, no rain is expected with this passing system.
Overall the pattern will continue to feature a broad northwesterly flow aloft and presence of high pressure and dry air through Friday.
However, guidance continues to suggest an influx of tropical moisture advecting into the region from the Gulf along with an associated low pressure system.
This favors medium rain chances with a few storms this weekend.