Between Two Fronts
Sunday, October 4, 2026 · 11:34 PM
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Lyrics
Gradual clearing Monday morning with passage of a reinforcing cold front. Dry weather expected through Friday with cool nights and warm days. Low to medium rain chances less than fifty percent this weekend. Dewpoint at Clarksville dropping down to forty-nine! Smyrna sits at sixty-four right across the line! Reinforcing cold air punching through the state! Dry and breezy Monday afternoon seals our fate! High pressure sliding east across the Ohio Valley floor! Cool nights and warm afternoons knocking at the door! FORTY-NINE! FORTY-NINE! FORTY-NINE! SIXTY-FOUR! SIXTY-FOUR! SIXTY-FOUR! Humidity is crashing as the dry air takes control! Marginal fire weather burning out the soul! Reinforcing boundary pushing down the line! We are trapped between two fronts! INVERTED SURFACE TROFF ON TUESDAY! MITIGATE THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY CONCERNS! NO ESCAPE FROM THE DRYING WIND! CLEAR IT OUT! FORTY-NINE! FORTY-NINE! FORTY-NINE! INVERTED TROFF! INVERTED TROFF! INVERTED TROFF! High pressure holding strong! Through Friday afternoon! Cool nights! Warm days! Between two fronts!
The forecast discussion
NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 1130 PM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026
- Gradual clearing Monday morning with passage of a reinforcing cold front.
- Dry weather expected through Friday with cool nights and warm days.
- Low to medium rain chances (<50%) this weekend.
SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Tuesday Night) Issued at 1130 PM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026
We're currently between two surface fronts; the most important one is the cold front now moving into Middle Tennessee.
This is mostly noticeable when looking at surface dewpoints and analyzed PWs.
The dewpoint at CKV is currently 49, as opposed to 64 at MQY.
This reinforcement of drier, cooler air will support cool nights, but warm afternoons, through the short-term with high pressure moving east across the Ohio Valley.
Dry, breezy conditions will result in marginal fire weather conditions for Monday afternoon, but an inverted surface trough is expected Tuesday which should mitigate RH concerns.
LONG TERM
(Wednesday through next Monday) Issued at 1130 PM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026
Continued stable weather is expected through Friday as much of the eastern CONUS is influenced by high pressure systems and persistent upper-level troughing.
We might see a shortwave Wed/thu week, but appears to be moisture deprived.
Regardless, we should experience gradual warming with best rain chances this weekend.
Medium-range guidance and ensembles all suggest Gulf moisture spreading northward into the Tennessee Valley, assuming the upper- level trough can lift northeastward toward Newfoundland opening the door for low pressure/moisture to move our way.