A Couple Storms Going
Friday, October 2, 2026 · 12:26 AM
Watch and listen
Lyrics
Medium to high rain chances develop Friday and continue into Sunday. Isolated thunderstorms are forecast, but severe weather is not expected at this time. Low to medium chance for more than one inch of rain this weekend with the heaviest rain expected Friday afternoon and Sunday. Cooler, drier conditions are expected for next week. Well the main moisture axis is stretching out real fine From southern Texas right up to the Great Lakes line You feel that humidity risin' off the floor Yeah, baby, you know you wanna ask for more That low pressure system is weakening tonight Shearing on out to the polar jet in flight Nine twenty-five to eight hundred fifty millibar flow Isentropic ascent is gonna put on a show Fragmented rain on Friday afternoon We're heating up the atmosphere real soon Whoa-oh! We got a couple storms going! Whoa-oh! You know the feeling is growing! The front is sliding south but we are staying right here Yeah, you and me honey, making heat disappear! Whoa-oh! A couple storms going! Saturday morning with that southwest flow aloft Cloudy little sky making all the edges soft No drought buster baby, but a welcome cool down When that cold front rolls right through this rock and roll town We got upper-level dynamics lifting way up high Catching right entrance region as the jets zip by Nine twenty-five to eight hundred fifty millibar flow Isentropic ascent is gonna put on a show Fragmented rain on Friday afternoon We're heating up the atmosphere real soon Whoa-oh! We got a couple storms going! Whoa-oh! You know the feeling is growing! The front is sliding south but we are staying right here Yeah, you and me honey, making heat disappear! Whoa-oh! A couple storms going! Reinforcing cold front coming Monday morning Low eighties by mid week, consider this your warning Whoa-oh! A couple storms going! Whoa-oh! A couple storms going!
The forecast discussion
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 1225 AM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026
- Medium to high rain chances develop Friday and continue into Sunday.
Isolated thunderstorms are forecast, but severe weather is not expected at this time.
- Low to medium chance for more than 1 inch of rain this weekend with the heaviest rain expected Friday afternoon and Sunday.
- Cooler, drier conditions are expected for next week.
SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Saturday Night) Issued at 1130 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026
The storm system off to our west continues to draw closer to the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys.
Warmer, more moist air is being advected into the area this evening and you can tell outside that humidity levels are up compared to just a couple days ago.
The main moisture axis now stretches from southern Texas into the Great Lakes.
Though we are seeing an increase in moisture approaching the area, the overall strength of the low pressure system is decreasing with the upper-level dynamics now shearing out and lifting northeastward into the Polar jet stream.
Most areas of rain and storms to the west are losing intensity.
This will continue to be the case with rain shower activity moving into Middle Tennessee tomorrow.
It doesn't appear we'll experience a solid line of rain/storms, but rather scattered/fragmented activity, though some potential for heating to get a couple storms going.
Overall this does not appear to bring a drought busting rain event, but a welcome cool down with rain and cloud cover then an initial cold frontal passage Friday afternoon/evening.
Though the surface front will be to our south on Saturday, weak 925-850 mb confluence will remain across Middle Tennessee with lingering southwesterly flow aloft supporting isentropic ascent.
Light to moderate rain showers are possible throughout the day with mostly cloudy to cloudy skies.
LONG TERM
(Sunday through next Friday) Issued at 1130 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026
Southwesterly flow aloft and lingering low- to mid-level deformation are progged to be in place near our region on Sunday.
We could also see favorable alignment of the right entrance region of the upper-level jet, at least briefly, but these features have varying placement depending on individual model solutions.
These forcing considerations will help bring additional rain showers to the area, best chances are across the southeast half of Middle Tennessee.
Finally, a prominent northern stream disturbance and associated reinforcing cold front is expected to arrive Monday morning.
This will bring a notably cooler, drier airmass that is forecast to stick around for much of next week.
Lows into the low 40s to low 50s are expected, though the dry airmass will allow for efficient afternoon warming as well; into the 80s west of the Plateau by mid week.