Losing Intensity
Thursday, October 1, 2026 · 11:44 PM
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Medium to high rain chances develop Friday and continue into Sunday. Isolated thunderstorms are forecast, but severe weather is not expected at this time. Low to medium chance for more than one inch of rain this weekend with the heaviest rain expected Friday afternoon and on Sunday. Cooler, drier conditions are expected for next week. Eleven thirty P.M. Central Daylight Time! The axis stretches! The upper dynamics shearing out! Lifting northeast! Issued Thursday night-- Eleven thirty P.M.! Warmer, more moist air advected into-- Humidity up from two days ago! Nine hundred twenty-five to eight hundred fifty millibar! Weak confluence across Middle Tennessee! Scattered-- fragmented-- No solid line moving in tomorrow! Lifting northeast into the polar jet stream! We lose the drive-- We lose the-- Saturday night at zero zulu-- Surface front pushed south! Lingering southwesterly flow aloft! Isentropic ascent! Light to moderate rain showers-- Sunday at twelve zulu-- Right entrance region of the upper level jet! Varying placement in the model solutions! Reinforcing cold front arriving Monday morning! Low forties! Low fifties! Efficient afternoon warming! Mid-week eighties west of the Plateau! Northern stream disturbance! Cut off-- Sheared out-- Upper level dynamics shearing north! Fragmented lines without a spine! We are fading in the flow! Losing intensity! Eleven thirty P.M.! Polar jet stream! Losing intensity! Losing intensity!
The forecast discussion
NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 1130 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026
- Medium to high rain chances develop Friday and continue into Sunday.
Isolated thunderstorms are forecast, but severe weather is not expected at this time.
- Low to medium chance for more than 1 inch of rain this weekend with the heaviest rain expected Friday afternoon and on Sunday.
- Cooler, drier conditions are expected for next week.
SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Saturday Night) Issued at 1130 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026
The storm system off to our west continues to draw closer to the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys.
Warmer, more moist air is being advected into the area this evening and you can tell outside that humidity levels are up compared to just a couple days ago.
The main moisture axis now stretches from southern Texas into the Great Lakes.
Though we are seeing an increase in moisture approaching the area, the overall strength of the low pressure system is decreasing with the upper-level dynamics now shearing out and lifting northeastward into the Polar jet stream.
Most areas of rain and storms to the west are losing intensity.
This will continue to be the case with rain shower activity moving into Middle Tennessee tomorrow.
It doesn't appear we'll experience a solid line of rain/storms, but rather scattered/fragmented activity, though some potential for heating to get a couple storms going.
Overall this does not appear to bring a drought busting rain event, but a welcome cool down with rain and cloud cover then an initial cold frontal passage Friday afternoon/evening.
Though the surface front will be to our south on Saturday, weak 925-850 mb confluence will remain across Middle Tennessee with lingering southwesterly flow aloft supporting isentropic ascent.
Light to moderate rain showers are possible throughout the day with mostly cloudy to cloudy skies.
LONG TERM
(Sunday through next Friday) Issued at 1130 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026
Southwesterly flow aloft and lingering low- to mid-level deformation are progged to be in place near our region on Sunday.
We could also see favorable alignment of the right entrance region of the upper-level jet, at least briefly, but these features have varying placement depending on individual model solutions.
These forcing considerations will help bring additional rain showers to the area, best chances are across the southeast half of Middle Tennessee.
Finally, a prominent northern stream disturbance and associated reinforcing cold front is expected to arrive Monday morning.
This will bring a notably cooler, drier airmass that is forecast to stick around for much of next week.
Lows into the low 40s to low 50s are expected, though the dry airmass will allow for efficient afternoon warming as well; into the 80s west of the Plateau by mid week.