Mid 90s Thursday
Wednesday, September 30, 2026 · 10:37 PM
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Above-normal temperatures through Friday with highs reaching the low eighties to mid nineties Thursday. Medium to high rain chances develop Friday and continue into Sunday. Rain chances decrease throughout Sunday with cooler, drier weather expected into next week. Medium chance for more than one inch of rain this weekend with the heaviest rain expected Friday afternoon into Sunday morning. Southerly flow pushing up from the Gulf Upper level ridge sitting fat and proud High pressure parked right off the East Coast No air moving, just a heavy cloud Thursday comes around and the furnace hits Moisture advection, yeah we are full of it! Lack of forcing cannot stop this heat Weakening low on the southern street Lapse rates poor but the friction is right We are gonna sweat through the southern night! Shake the gauge, turn up the heat Southerly flow on every street Watch the mercury start to flex Mid 90s Thursday Cold front rolling from the Central Plains Shearing right out into the Polar jet Residual shortwave troff coming in hot I ain't done having my fun just yet Stalling boundary right across the south Isentropic ascent in a bad girl's mouth! Lapse rates poor but we do not care Anomalous moisture in the heavy air Right entrance region of the jet up high Watch the downpours bleed the sky! Shake the gauge, turn up the heat Southerly flow on every street Watch the mercury start to flex Mid 90s Thursday Mid 90s Thursday! Yeah, bring that troff on in! Stall that front! Mid 90s Thursday!
The forecast discussion
NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 1035 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026
- Above-normal temperatures through Friday with highs reaching the low 80s to mid 90s Thursday.
- Medium to high rain chances develop Friday and continue into Sunday.
Rain chances decrease throughout Sunday with cooler, drier weather expected into next week.
- Medium chance for more than 1 inch of rain this weekend with the heaviest rain expected Friday afternoon into Sunday morning.
SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Friday Night) Issued at 1035 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026
Mid- to upper-level ridging is in place across the Mid South with high pressure centered just off the East Coast.
Southerly low- level flow stretches from the northern Gulf Coast into Middle Tennessee at this time.
This will support a gradual increase in moisture/humidity and cloud cover Thursday into Friday.
Thursday will remain dry overall, though, thanks to lack of forcing despite moisture advection.
It'll also be the hottest day of the forecast period.
A southern stream low pressure system sits over the Southern and Central Plains currently.
This will work east closer to the Tennessee Valley on Friday, though in a weakening state as dynamics aloft shear/lift out into the Polar jet.
However, the cold front and axis of anomalous moisture will approach the area Friday morning with the residual shortwave trough.
Rain showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms are expected across Middle Tennessee throughout the day.
Overall instability remains low thanks to poor lapse rates.
Rain showers are forecast to persist overnight, though with a decrease in intensity as the front moves southeast.
It looks like the front should stall across the southern portion of the forecast area Friday night, or to our south all together, though cloudiness and additional light rain is forecast into Saturday morning thanks to southwesterly flow aloft and isentropic ascent.
LONG TERM
(Saturday through next Thursday) Issued at 1035 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026
It looks like a mostly cloudy day shaping up for the start to the weekend thanks to the aforementioned setup favoring isentropic ascent across the area.
There's medium-high rain chances, mostly in the form of rain showers, and best chances are south of I-40 and across the Plateau.
Cloudiness and light-medium rain shower activity is forecast to persist into Sunday with little movement in the southwesterly flow aloft.
Additional rain amounts of 0.5-1.5" are possible thanks to upper jet dynamics setting up (right entrance region).
Finally, a broad northern stream trough and cold front push into the area Sunday night.
Once that occurs, a period of stable, cooler weather will persist across the region for the remainder of the forecast period.