Climbing Efficiently
Wednesday, September 30, 2026 · 6:14 PM
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Updated at six twelve P.M. Central Daylight Time Wednesday September thirtieth twenty twenty-six. Well above normal temperatures through Friday with highs reaching the low eighties to mid nineties. Medium to high rain chances develop Friday and continue into Saturday. Rain chances decrease through the day on Sunday with cooler, drier weather thereafter. Medium chance for more than one inch of rain this weekend with the heaviest rain expected Friday afternoon into Sunday morning. Dew points trapped down in the fifties Upper riding holds the heat inside my chest Nashville ninety-eight and Crossville ninety-one October creeping in under a blazing sun Sneaking toward the mid nineties tomorrow afternoon Upper troff stalling out across the plains too soon The forcing stays out west while we burn alive How do we survive How do we survive Climbing efficiently! Climbing efficiently! Climbing efficiently! Climbing efficiently! Climbing efficiently! Climbing efficiently! Climbing efficiently! Climbing efficiently! Climbing efficiently.
The forecast discussion
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 612 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026
- Well above normal temperatures through Friday with highs reaching the low 80s to mid 90s.
- Medium to high rain chances develop Friday and continue into Saturday.
Rain chances decrease through the day on Sunday with cooler, drier weather thereafter.
- Medium chance for more than 1 inch of rain this weekend with the heaviest rain expected Friday afternoon into Sunday morning.
SHORT TERM
(Rest of today through Thursday) Issued at 1110 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026
Temperatures are climbing through the 70s currently with low level southerly flow increasing and upper riding building.
With dew points in the 50s, temperatures will climb efficiently through the early afternoon with highs topping out in the mid 80s to lower 90s.
The warming trend will continue on Thursday with a few locations sneaking into the mid 90s.
While well above normal, record highs will remain intact.
Nashville and Crossville's record highs for October 1st are 98 and 91 respectively.
The upper trough and front we'll be watching for this weekend will slowly progress across the plains on Thursday, but forcing and appreciable moisture will remain west of the area until Friday.
LONG TERM
(Thursday Night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1110 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026
The dry pattern finally starts to change on Friday as a boundary moves into the area and along with a moisture axis.
While the surface boundary moves through the area on Friday, the boundary aloft will linger through the weekend with multiple disturbances along the quasi zonal upper flow.
This will lead to rounds of showers and isolated storms through Sunday when a deeper wave pushes the boundary far enough south to put an end to our rain chances.
Ensembles have the highest rainfall amounts along the plateau with lower amounts in the west and northwest.
Locations along the plateau have about a 50-65% chance of picking up at least one inch of rain through the weekend.
Locations in the west and northwest have about a 30-40% chance on picking up an inch of rain.
With the better dynamics remaining well north of the area and poor lapse rates due to saturated soundings, severe storms are not anticipated.
Behind the weekend system, temperatures will be back closer to normal with highs in the 70s and lows in the 40s and 50s.
The area will be dry for the remainder of the forecast.|