Saturated Soundings
Wednesday, September 30, 2026 · 11:13 AM
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Well above normal temperatures through Friday with highs reaching the low eighties to mid nineties. Medium to high rain chances develop Friday and continue into Saturday. Rain chances decrease through the day on Sunday with cooler, drier weather thereafter. Medium chance for more than one inch of rain this weekend with the heaviest rain expected Friday afternoon into Sunday morning. Dew points in the fifties. Temperatures climbing through the seventies. Upper riding building so quietly. Southerly flow keeping us trapped under the heat. Climbing efficiently through early afternoon. Mid eighties to lower nineties today. The warming trend will continue into Thursday. A few locations sneaking into the mid nineties. Record highs remain intact. Nashville ninety-eight degrees. Crossville ninety-one. The upper troff slowly progresses across the plains. Forcing and moisture stay to the west! Until Friday! The boundary moves into the area with a moisture axis! Multiple disturbances along the upper flow! Poor lapse rates! Poor lapse rates collapsing everything! Rounds of showers through Sunday morning! No severe storms anticipated! Plateau sixty-five percent chance! Saturated soundings! PUT AN END TO OUR RAIN CHANCES! BEHIND THE SYSTEM! HIGHS BACK IN THE SEVENTIES! LOWS IN THE FORTIES AND FIFTIES! DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST! Cooler, drier weather thereafter. Nashville ninety-eight. Saturated soundings.
The forecast discussion
NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 1110 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026
- Well above normal temperatures through Friday with highs reaching the low 80s to mid 90s.
- Medium to high rain chances develop Friday and continue into Saturday.
Rain chances decrease through the day on Sunday with cooler, drier weather thereafter.
- Medium chance for more than 1 inch of rain this weekend with the heaviest rain expected Friday afternoon into Sunday morning.
SHORT TERM
(Rest of today through Thursday) Issued at 1110 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026
Temperatures are climbing through the 70s currently with low level southerly flow increasing and upper riding building.
With dew points in the 50s, temperatures will climb efficiently through the early afternoon with highs topping out in the mid 80s to lower 90s.
The warming trend will continue on Thursday with a few locations sneaking into the mid 90s.
While well above normal, record highs will remain intact.
Nashville and Crossville's record highs for October 1st are 98 and 91 respectively.
The upper trough and front we'll be watching for this weekend will slowly progress across the plains on Thursday, but forcing and appreciable moisture will remain west of the area until Friday.
LONG TERM
(Thursday Night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1110 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026
The dry pattern finally starts to change on Friday as a boundary moves into the area and along with a moisture axis.
While the surface boundary moves through the area on Friday, the boundary aloft will linger through the weekend with multiple disturbances along the quasi zonal upper flow.
This will lead to rounds of showers and isolated storms through Sunday when a deeper wave pushes the boundary far enough south to put an end to our rain chances.
Ensembles have the highest rainfall amounts along the plateau with lower amounts in the west and northwest.
Locations along the plateau have about a 50-65% chance of picking up at least one inch of rain through the weekend.
Locations in the west and northwest have about a 30-40% chance on picking up an inch of rain.
With the better dynamics remaining well north of the area and poor lapse rates due to saturated soundings, severe storms are not anticipated.
Behind the weekend system, temperatures will be back closer to normal with highs in the 70s and lows in the 40s and 50s.
The area will be dry for the remainder of the forecast.|