A Stalling Front
Wednesday, September 30, 2026 · 5:53 AM
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Updated at five fifty-two A.M. Central Daylight Time Wednesday, September thirtieth, twenty twenty-six. Well above normal temperatures through Friday with highs reaching the low eighties to mid nineties. Medium to high rain chances develop Friday and continue into Saturday. Rain chances decrease on Sunday with cooler, drier weather thereafter. High chance for more than one inch of rain this weekend with the heaviest rain expected Friday afternoon into Sunday morning. High pressure riding east across the state tonight Southerly winds pushing mercury out of sight Low eighties to mid nineties baking in the sun Slower moisture recovery before the damage is done Near record heat taking over Middle Tennessee Short-term dry spell burning through you and me! Pre-frontal moisture creeping in from the west Southern stream disturbance putting us to the test Mixed layer convective available potential energy Under seven hundred fifty joules per kilogram! The southern stream is lifting, shearing to the north Anomalous moisture axis pouring its fury forth! Heavy rain is coming, there is nowhere left to run Bound to get caught in a stalling front! Deepening boundary layer moisture on the rise Cold front of northern origins cut through the skies Friday afternoon straight into Sunday morn More than one inch of rainfall is born Isolated storms breaking out in the humidity Reinforcing cold shot setting us free! The southern stream is lifting, shearing to the north Anomalous moisture axis pouring its fury forth! Heavy rain is coming, there is nowhere left to run Bound to get caught in a stalling front! High pressure building from the north on Sunday! Cooler drier weather coming our way! Rain chances dropping out! Cooler drier air! Bound to get caught in a stalling front! A stalling front!
The forecast discussion
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 552 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026
- Well above normal temperatures through Friday with highs reaching the low 80s to mid 90s.
- Medium to high rain chances develop Friday and continue into Saturday.
Rain chances decrease on Sunday with cooler, drier weather thereafter.
- High chance for more than 1 inch of rain this weekend with the heaviest rain expected Friday afternoon into Sunday morning.
SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Thursday Night) Issued at 1115 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026
Surface high pressure is forecast to continue eastward through the short-term which will favor southerly winds and some amplification of the mid/upper-level ridge.
We'll see a warming trend through Thursday as a result, with temperatures well above seasonal norms.
Current forecast highs are a few degrees short of records on Thursday, though.
We'll also remain dry thanks to slower moisture recovery and lack of forcing for ascent, though a low chance for rain creeps into the forecast Thursday night into Friday morning with pre-frontal moisture advection moving in from the west.
LONG TERM
(Friday through next Wednesday) Issued at 1115 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026
Rain chances continue to increase Friday into Saturday thanks to the presence of deepening boundary layer moisture and an approaching southern stream disturbance along with a cold front of northern stream origins.
While the disturbance aloft is progged to lift/shear northeastward throughout Friday, which would reduce dynamics aloft, the lingering/stalling front and anomalous moisture axis will remain draped across Middle Tennessee into Saturday fostering additional rain shower activity.
Instability values are low (MLCAPE <750 J/kg) due to saturated vertical profiles and poor lapse rates, so storms should remain isolated.
Latest guidance suggests the front will begin to progress southeast again on Sunday with influence of high pressure building to our north, with perhaps another reinforcing cold front moving in as well.
The remainder of the forecast period (into mid next week) would transition to cooler, stable weather.