50 to 70 Percent
Monday, September 28, 2026 · 5:43 AM
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Lyrics
Pleasant weather with seasonal temperatures and dry conditions through Monday. Warming well above normal by midweek with highs reaching the eighties to lower nineties. Low to medium rain chances develop by the weekend. A large surface troff stretches across the southeast tonight Patchy high clouds filtering through the dark We remain under a substantial amount of dry air Savoring one more cool night in the low to mid fifties Before the ridge pulls in to set up shop August twenty-sixth was the last time we saw the rain And even then, less than a tenth of an inch fell on Nashville Now the mid-level flow shifts southwesterly Drawing the moisture back into the dry clay The National Blend of Models shows the split, the uncertainty of Friday But we are wrapping up the hottest and driest September on record The ridge is cracking at the edges We are desperate for a soaking rain to break this dry spell Ensembles are finally showing the signal Fifty to seventy percent Fifty to seventy percent! Fifty to seventy percent! Fifty to seventy percent! Fifty to seventy percent!
The forecast discussion
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 543 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026
- Pleasant weather with seasonal temperatures and dry conditions through Monday.
- Warming well above normal by midweek with highs reaching the 80s to lower 90s.
- Low to medium rain chances develop by the weekend.
SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Tuesday Night) Issued at 1038 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026
A large surface trough stretches across the southeast tonight with patchy high clouds filtering in. We remain under a substantial amount of dry air and will enjoy one more "cool" day Monday before temperatures jump back up. Highs will be in the low to mid 80s with cool overnight lows in the low to mid 50s.
As the deep low over the northeast coast continues to pull away, ridging will pull in behind in and set up shop through the rest of the week.
Temperatures Tuesday through potentially Friday will will warm back up into the upper 80s to low 90s.
LONG TERM
(Wednesday through next Monday) Issued at 1038 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026
Mid-level flow will shift southwesterly by mid-week, drawing moisture back into the area.
This will result in the return of a more humid airmass that we are all too familiar with.
Our streak of no rain in Nashville will very likely continue under this ridge as rain chances remain slim to none.
The forecast becomes more uncertain starting Friday as the NBM continues to suggest low to medium rain chances returning, but significant model disagreement remains.
There is a large spread in potential high temperatures Friday because of this, too.
Ensembles show very different outcomes through Saturday, making the forecast during this time a low confidence one.
There is much better agreement and signal for rain during the Sunday/Monday timeframe with rain chances areawide ranging from 50-70%.
By this point, atmospheric moisture will be much higher, setting the stage for a good, hopefully soaking rain.
The last day Nashville had measurable rainfall was August 26th, and even that was very little, less than a tenth of an inch.
We are likely about to wrap up the hottest and driest September on record.