Set Up Shop
Monday, September 28, 2026 · 12:40 AM
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Updated at twelve forty A.M. Central Daylight Time Monday September twenty-eight twenty twenty-six Pleasant weather with seasonal temperatures and dry conditions through Monday. Warming well above normal by midweek with highs reaching the eighties to lower nineties. Low to medium rain chances develop by the weekend. Yeah, we got a large surface troff stretching out across the southeast tonight With patchy high clouds filtering in, but man, this dry air feels so right Just one more cool day on Monday, keeping it easy, keeping it clean Before that deep low over the northeast coast pulls right away from the scene Oh, we're talking low to mid eighties, with the fifties at night But the ridge is waiting in the wings to ignite Turn the heat up, watch the mercury rise! No rain in Nashville under these skies! The ridge is coming, it's never gonna stop We're gonna set up shop! Now Wednesday brings that southwest flow, drawing the moisture back in town That humid airmass we know too well, but you won't see a single drop fall down Our streak is safe, ninety-degree heat laughing at the calendar page Since August twenty-sixth, less than a tenth of an inch on this stage Is it gonna rain by Friday? Well, the models disagree But I'm the ringmaster of this dry-spell jubilee, baby! Turn the heat up, watch the mercury rise! No rain in Nashville under these skies! The ridge is coming, it's never gonna stop We're gonna set up shop! Turn the heat up, watch the mercury rise! No rain in Nashville under these skies! The ridge is coming, it's never gonna stop We're gonna set up shop! Yeah, we're wrapping up the hottest September on record! No rain! No rain! Just set up shop! We are set up shop!
The forecast discussion
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 1240 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026
- Pleasant weather with seasonal temperatures and dry conditions through Monday.
- Warming well above normal by midweek with highs reaching the 80s to lower 90s.
- Low to medium rain chances develop by the weekend.
SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Tuesday Night) Issued at 1038 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026
A large surface trough stretches across the southeast tonight with patchy high clouds filtering in. We remain under a substantial amount of dry air and will enjoy one more "cool" day Monday before temperatures jump back up. Highs will be in the low to mid 80s with cool overnight lows in the low to mid 50s.
As the deep low over the northeast coast continues to pull away, ridging will pull in behind in and set up shop through the rest of the week.
Temperatures Tuesday through potentially Friday will will warm back up into the upper 80s to low 90s.
LONG TERM
(Wednesday through next Monday) Issued at 1038 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026
Mid-level flow will shift southwesterly by mid-week, drawing moisture back into the area.
This will result in the return of a more humid airmass that we are all too familiar with.
Our streak of no rain in Nashville will very likely continue under this ridge as rain chances remain slim to none.
The forecast becomes more uncertain starting Friday as the NBM continues to suggest low to medium rain chances returning, but significant model disagreement remains.
There is a large spread in potential high temperatures Friday because of this, too.
Ensembles show very different outcomes through Saturday, making the forecast during this time a low confidence one.
There is much better agreement and signal for rain during the Sunday/Monday timeframe with rain chances areawide ranging from 50-70%.
By this point, atmospheric moisture will be much higher, setting the stage for a good, hopefully soaking rain.
The last day Nashville had measurable rainfall was August 26th, and even that was very little, less than a tenth of an inch.
We are likely about to wrap up the hottest and driest September on record.