Driest September
Sunday, September 27, 2026 · 11:41 AM
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Pleasant weather with seasonal temperatures and dry conditions through Monday. Warming well above normal by midweek with highs reaching the eighties to lower nineties. Low to medium rain chances develop by the weekend. Northerly flow bringing desert-like air across Middle Tennessee. Relative humidity plunging beneath the high altitude clouds. Cool nights give way to building heat from the west. The ridge creeps closer every hour. An East Coast low stalls off the shore while high pressure takes hold. Precipitable water stays far below normal. Zero point five inches of moisture in the entire atmospheric column. The atmosphere refuses to yield. The European model holds the moisture back. The southeast ridge deflects every approaching front. Midweek pushes temperatures higher and higher. And the ground cracks open under the weight. The air is parched, the moisture stays away Deflected by the blocking strength above We pray for rain to end this relentless heat Trapped inside the driest September HIGHS REACHING THE LOWER NINETIES! WARMEST AND DRIEST SEPTEMBER ON RECORD! THE RIDGE REFUSES TO MOVE! NOT A DROP OF RAIN UNTIL THE WEEKEND! Desert-like air... Lower nineties... Trapped inside the driest September...
The forecast discussion
NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 1140 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026
- Pleasant weather with seasonal temperatures and dry conditions through Monday.
- Warming well above normal by midweek with highs reaching the 80s to lower 90s.
- Low to medium rain chances develop by the weekend.
SHORT TERM
(Rest of today through Monday) Issued at 1140 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026
This Sunday morning, a very comfortable pattern remained in place across Middle TN and surrounding areas.
National maps showed a storm system along the East Coast with a ridge over the plains.
In between these systems, northerly flow was bringing us dry air with a few patches of mid and high level clouds.
The almost desert-like air was giving us cool nights and warm days, and this pattern will continue tonight through Monday.
LONG TERM
(Monday Night through next Sunday) Issued at 1140 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026
After Monday, the east coast low will weaken and depart as the ridge moves in from the west.
This will bring a major warmup with highs climbing into the 80s to low 90s by midweek.
Low level southerly flow will develop during the time bringing higher humidity to go along with the building heat.
We could all use some rain as we wrap up the (likely) warmest and driest September on record for Nashville, but things look dry through the end of the month.
Our National Blend of Models brings some low rain chances starting late Thursday into Friday, then increases those chances over the weekend.
Unfortunately, there continue to be significant differences among the model ensemble members.
The first chances of rain would come as a front approaches from the northwest.
The better rain chances would arrive during the weekend as a moisture-rich southern stream system moves in from the west.
Unfortunately, these systems may be slowed or partially deflected by the strong southeast ridge.
Right now, my personal preference lies with the ECMWF keeping things dry through Friday and much of Saturday based on the strong southeast ridge.
ECMWF then shows a slug of deep moisture and soaking rainfall Saturday night through Sunday.
For now, the NBM will spread rain medium chances through the weekend based on the uncertainty / varying models.
Late week temperatures will be well above normal, but highs could be limited by increasing clouds and possible showers and storms.