Only a Trace
Saturday, September 26, 2026 · 5:44 AM
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Lyrics
Pleasant weather through the weekend with seasonal temperatures and dry conditions. Warmer by the middle of next week with low to medium rain chances returning Friday through next weekend. Sandwiched in the quiet realm between the dark Atlantic low And the high pressure burning from the southwest down below Eighty-three degrees of calm before the creeping heat returns A week ago we burned in nineties, now the silence burns The Global Forecast System sees the ancient prophecy The European model speaks of what is forced to be A monthly drought like October nineteen sixty-three The sky is sealed, no rain set free The Atlantic low pulls us down The southwest ridge wears the crown September dies without a sound Only a trace By Thursday afternoon the ridge will rise and swallow all Mid-state reaching well into the eighties as we fall The National Blend of Models hesitates to speak of rain While eastern Canada pulls the troff into despair and pain The Atlantic low pulls us down The southwest ridge wears the crown September dies without a sound Only a trace Only a trace Only a trace No water falls upon this place Only a trace
The forecast discussion
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 542 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026
- Pleasant weather through the weekend with seasonal temperatures and dry conditions.
- Warmer by the middle of next week with low to medium rain chances returning Friday through next weekend.
SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Monday Night) Issued at 1024 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026
What a difference a week makes.
This time last week we were in the middle of a 7-day stretch of 98 to 100 degree temperatures at BNA.
Today?
Another glorious high temperature of 83 degrees.
That's 4 days in a row of 83 or cooler.
Why?
Because we finally got rid of a very strong upper level ridge and we're now sandwiched between a strong low pressure system on the Atlantic seaboard and high pressure to our southwest.
This has set up a fantastic weekend for Middle TN with no rain and highs of 80 or cooler across the whole area.
In fact, this should be the case to start off next week on Monday, as well.
LONG TERM
(Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 1024 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026
As we get into Tuesday, the strong system in New England will start to pull off into eastern Canada and open the door for the high pressure to our southwest to start heading this way.
Afternoon temperatures will respond to this increased ridging across the region, warming each day and by Thursday, everyone in the mid-state will be well into the 80s.
At this point, you're probably asking, what about rain?
Unfortunately, I don't have any good news in that category for about a week.
In fact, it looks like there's a high likelihood that we will only see a trace of rain at BNA for the entire month of September.
The last (and only other) time that has occurred on record was October 1963. The GFS and Euro are fairly consistent showing the mid-week upper ridge slipping to the east and allowing for the return of rain for what looks like a wet weekend next week.
The NBM isn't so sure with low rain chances returning Thursday.
Until then, enjoy this incredible upcoming weekend.