Stay Weather Aware
Sunday, September 20, 2026 · 6:35 PM
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Monday will be hot, but heat index values should stay below advisory levels. Major heat relief is on the way with temperatures falling near normal levels by Wednesday. Chances for scattered showers and storms will develop areawide Monday. Rain chances will become medium to high on Tuesday. There is a low risk for strong storms with gusty winds each afternoon. Yeah! Yeah! Come on now! Whoa-oh! The heat's on, baby! Hey sweetheart, step into my zero point seven one inches of rain. We had thirty seconds of pitter-patter on the window sill, but I know what you really want. It's seven P.M. Central Daylight Time and the Heat Advisory is wrapping up, But don't get cold feet just yet, Monday is gonna turn it right back up! We got heat index values pushing one hundred to one hundred seven today, And subsidence trying to keep us locked in, but I always get my way! That upper level ridge is about to crack! A weak frontal boundary has got my back! Some meager shear is moving through the night, So hold on tight, yeah, hold on tight! Whoa-oh! We got one more warm one coming through! Whoa-oh! Rain chances medium to high for me and you! If you're stepping outside while the storm clouds flare, Baby, you gotta stay weather aware! Now Tuesday morning brings the cluster of storms, you know? Not looking for exceptional organization, just a hell of a show! The Plateau might see low nineties in the south, But by Wednesday, fall arrives right out of your mouth! Temps dropping to the seventies and eighties, so smooth, so sweet, I'm taking over the forecast, bringing relief to the street! That upper level ridge is about to crack! A weak frontal boundary has got my back! Some meager shear is moving through the night, So hold on tight, yeah, hold on tight! Whoa-oh! We got one more warm one coming through! Whoa-oh! Rain chances medium to high for me and you! If you're stepping outside while the storm clouds flare, Baby, you gotta stay weather aware! Yeah! Fall is here by Wednesday, baby! WOOO! Low risk, NOT zero! Low risk, NOT zero! Right around normal levels! Stay weather aware! Whoa-oh-oh! Yeah!
The forecast discussion
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 625 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026
- Monday will be hot, but heat index values should stay below advisory levels.
- Major heat relief is on the way with temperatures falling near normal levels by Wednesday.
- Chances for scattered showers and storms will develop areawide Monday.
Rain chances will become medium to high on Tuesday.
There is a low risk for strong storms with gusty winds each afternoon.
SHORT TERM
(Rest of today through Tuesday Night) Issued at 1101 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026
It wasn't much, but a weak wave brought a little shower to a few spots in central Middle TN this morning.
It was great to hear the pitter-patter of rain drops on the window sill -- even if it was only for 30 seconds.
Anecdotally, we've only had 0.71" of rain here at the office the entire month of September.
I know.
There are some spots that haven't even seen that much, but some relief is on the way, both with the rain and the temperatures.
Starting with the rest of today, we will maintain the current Heat Advisory through 7 pm. Afternoon temperatures are still expected to reach into the upper 90s for much of the mid-state, including Heat Index values of 100-107. Much like yesterday, portions of the mid- state, especially the Plateau and our southern counties, aren't under the strongest subsidence of the upper level ridge.
This means low chances of showers and storms again this afternoon with a very low risk of strong wind gusts with any storm.
There are some indications that a few showers/storms could linger into the overnight, but I'm not concerned about anything severe.
With the end of the Heat Advisory, I'd like to say we're going to cool off quickly, but it's going to take a couple of days.
Monday will be another warm one, but with everybody expected to be below advisory criteria, we aren't going to extend the current advisory.
Just know we do have one more day ahead of us. However, the ridge responsible for these excruciating late-summer temperatures is expected to start breaking down tomorrow.
With the approach of a weak frontal boundary tomorrow night and into Tuesday morning, we're going to carry a medium to high chance of showers and storms from Monday afternoon into Tuesday.
Forecast soundings continue to display a low risk (NOT zero) of gusty winds with storms during the warmest part of Monday and Tuesday.
While meager, some shear will be available to help with cluster of storms, especially Monday night and Tuesday.
Not looking for any exceptional organization, but if you have outdoor plans either day, just remain weather aware.
LONG TERM
(Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 1101 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026
The passage of this frontal boundary will be it! The day we've all been waiting for: relief from the heat.
While some low 90s will be possible Tuesday afternoon across our southern counties, by Wednesday, everyone will be into the 70s (Plateau) and 80s -- just in time for the official arrival of fall.
Look for dry conditions the rest of the week with temperatures remaining right around normal for this time of the year.
WOOO!