Low Risk Not Zero
Sunday, September 20, 2026 · 12:40 PM
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A Heat Advisory continues through seven P.M. for most of Middle Tennessee. While it will remain warm Monday, the heat will begin to ease Tuesday. Low rain or storm chances through this afternoon. Higher rain or storm chances spread area-wide Monday through Tuesday with a low risk for strong storms with gusty winds each afternoon. Major heat relief is on the way with temperatures falling near normal levels starting Wednesday. Zero point seven one inches in the rain gauge all month long! Thirty seconds of water on the windowsill and then it is gone! Upper nineties burning bright across the mid-state ground! Heat index values one hundred to one hundred seven pressing down! Plateau standing guard! Southern counties hard! Subsidence weakening! Upper ridge collapsing! Meager shear available! Advancing on the heat! STORM CLUSTERS FORMING! FRONTAL BOUNDARY MARCHING! GUSTY WINDS COMING! LOW RISK NOT ZERO! Monday holds the line before the frontline arrives! No advisory extended but the pressure still drives! Weak frontal boundary moving through the dead of night! Showers and storms invading before the morning light! Hold your ground! Weather aware! NOT ZERO! NOT ZERO! THE RIDGE COLLAPSES NOW! TUESDAY BRINGS THE BREAK! STORM CLUSTERS FORMING! FRONTAL BOUNDARY MARCHING! GUSTY WINDS COMING! LOW RISK NOT ZERO! Seventies to eighties on Wednesday! Fall takes command! Stand fast! LOW RISK NOT ZERO!
The forecast discussion
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 1224 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026
- A Heat Advisory continues through 7 pm for most of Middle Tennessee.
While it will remain warm Monday, the heat will begin to ease Tuesday.
- Low rain/storm chances through this afternoon.
Higher rain/storm chances spread areawide Monday through Tuesday with a low risk for strong storms with gusty winds each afternoon.
- Major heat relief is on the way with temperatures falling near normal levels starting Wednesday.
SHORT TERM
(Rest of today through Tuesday Night) Issued at 1101 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026
It wasn't much, but a weak wave brought a little shower to a few spots in central Middle TN this morning.
It was great to hear the pitter-patter of rain drops on the window sill -- even if it was only for 30 seconds.
Anecdotally, we've only had 0.71" of rain here at the office the entire month of September.
I know.
There are some spots that haven't even seen that much, but some relief is on the way, both with the rain and the temperatures.
Starting with the rest of today, we will maintain the current Heat Advisory through 7 pm. Afternoon temperatures are still expected to reach into the upper 90s for much of the mid-state, including Heat Index values of 100-107. Much like yesterday, portions of the mid- state, especially the Plateau and our southern counties, aren't under the strongest subsidence of the upper level ridge.
This means low chances of showers and storms again this afternoon with a very low risk of strong wind gusts with any storm.
There are some indications that a few showers/storms could linger into the overnight, but I'm not concerned about anything severe.
With the end of the Heat Advisory, I'd like to say we're going to cool off quickly, but it's going to take a couple of days.
Monday will be another warm one, but with everybody expected to be below advisory criteria, we aren't going to extend the current advisory.
Just know we do have one more day ahead of us. However, the ridge responsible for these excruciating late-summer temperatures is expected to start breaking down tomorrow.
With the approach of a weak frontal boundary tomorrow night and into Tuesday morning, we're going to carry a medium to high chance of showers and storms from Monday afternoon into Tuesday.
Forecast soundings continue to display a low risk (NOT zero) of gusty winds with storms during the warmest part of Monday and Tuesday.
While meager, some shear will be available to help with cluster of storms, especially Monday night and Tuesday.
Not looking for any exceptional organization, but if you have outdoor plans either day, just remain weather aware.
LONG TERM
(Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 1101 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026
The passage of this frontal boundary will be it! The day we've all been waiting for: relief from the heat.
While some low 90s will be possible Tuesday afternoon across our southern counties, by Wednesday, everyone will be into the 70s (Plateau) and 80s -- just in time for the official arrival of fall.
Look for dry conditions the rest of the week with temperatures remaining right around normal for this time of the year.
WOOO!