105 Plus
Friday, September 18, 2026 · 12:26 PM
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Very hot and humid conditions with triple digit heat indices continue. A Heat Advisory is in effect through Sunday for most of Middle Tennessee. Low rain chances mainly for the Plateau this afternoon and again this weekend with a low chance for strong thunderstorm winds Saturday. Temperatures cool mid next week, but still remaining above normal, as low to medium rain chances return areawide. Late morning and already ninety degrees. Ninety-nine was the record in nineteen fifty-three. Forecast high today is ninety-nine. Four consecutive days of breaking or tying. Steep low-level lapse rates. Five hundred millibar long range trends. Interstate sixty-five bakes under a faded sun. Weak shortwave riding across the ridge tomorrow. Isolated storms west of the Plateau, but most of us remain completely dry. Overnight lows stuck in the mid-seventies. We wait for the upper low to dip down southeast. Waiting for the troff pattern to shift the air. Waiting for anything to break. The air is static, thick and dense. The sky refuses to relent. We burn beneath this atmosphere, Heat index 105 plus. DOWNDRAFT CONVECTIVE AVAILABLE POTENTIAL ENERGY OVER ONE THOUSAND JOULES PER KILOGRAM! FOUR CONSECUTIVE DAYS! ONE HUNDRED FIVE PLUS! IT WILL NOT BREAK! Five hundred millibar troff moving through Tuesday... Upper seventies by the end of next week... Fingers crossed... Fingers crossed for a pattern shift...
The forecast discussion
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 1223 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026
- Very hot and humid conditions with triple digit heat indices continue.
A Heat Advisory is in effect through Sunday for most of Middle Tennessee.
- Low rain chances mainly for the Plateau this afternoon and again this weekend with a low chance for strong thunderstorm winds Saturday.
- Temperatures cool mid next week, but still remaining above normal, as low to medium rain chances return areawide.
SHORT TERM
(Rest of today through Saturday) Issued at 1120 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026
Another day of potentially record-breaking heat as late morning temperatures are already at 90 degrees in some spots.
Ridging is beginning a slow retreat southwest, but it's influence will continue through Monday.
Nashville's high temperature record today is 99 (1953); the forecast high today is 99. If we reach that, today would make 4 consecutive days of either breaking or tying the high temperature record.
Highs will remain around the same values through this weekend with warm overnight lows in the low to mid 70s west of the Plateau.
There is another very low chance for an isolated storm this afternoon, but as with similar days, most will remain dry.
As the ridge pulls west, a weak shortwave will be allowed to ride across the ridge tomorrow, bringing a higher chance for scattered afternoon thunderstorms mainly for areas along and east of I-65. Widespread severe weather is not anticipated, but a few strong to severe wind gusts could occur in the strongest storms given steep low-level lapse rates and DCAPE values over 1000 J/kg.
LONG TERM
(Saturday Night through next Friday) Issued at 1120 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026
The heat will stick with us through the start of next week.
A Heat Advisory remains in effect through Sunday for heat indicies of 105+.
A trough will move through Tuesday that will allow for better, more widespread rain and thunderstorm chances to return to the forecast.
The troughing pattern looks to remain in place through the week with long range guidance hinting at a strong upper low dipping down over the southeast.
Should this happen, we would finally see a pumpkin spice-esque change in our temperatures.
The NBM is also optimistic with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s by the end of next week and overnight lows in the upper 50s to low 60s....Yes, 50s and 60s!!
We'll continue to monitor 500mb long range trends and keep our fingers crossed that this pattern shift is on the way.