Over One Thousand
Friday, September 18, 2026 · 11:28 AM
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Very hot and humid conditions with triple digit heat indices continue. A Heat Advisory is in effect through Sunday for most of Middle Tennessee. Low rain chances mainly for the Plateau this weekend with a low chance for strong thunderstorm winds Saturday. Temperatures cool mid next week, but still remaining above normal, as low to medium rain chances return areawide. Ninety degrees at late morning light The heat index climbs out of sight Ninety-nine predicted for the daily high Tying nineteen fifty-three beneath a burning sky Four consecutive days of broken records in a row The ridge pulls west, slow and low East of Interstate sixty-five The weak shortwave begins to arrive Steep low-level lapse rates set the stage The atmosphere prepares its rage The prophecy of sudden wind The ancient ridge begins to bend Downdraft energy rising high Over one thousand Warm overnight lows in the low to mid-seventies remain West of the Plateau, waiting for the rain Five hundred millibar charts reveal the shift A deep northern troff begins to drift Upper low dipping down to break the curse Before the suffocating heat gets any worse The prophecy of sudden wind The ancient ridge begins to bend Downdraft energy rising high Over one thousand Five hundred millibar trends A northern troff descends Over one thousand Over one thousand
The forecast discussion
NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 1120 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026
- Very hot and humid conditions with triple digit heat indices continue.
A Heat Advisory is in effect through Sunday for most of Middle Tennessee.
- Low rain chances mainly for the Plateau this weekend with a low chance for strong thunderstorm winds Saturday.
- Temperatures cool mid next week, but still remaining above normal, as low to medium rain chances return areawide.
SHORT TERM
(Rest of today through Saturday) Issued at 1120 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026
Another day of potentially record-breaking heat as late morning temperatures are already at 90 degrees in some spots.
Ridging is beginning a slow retreat southwest, but it's influence will continue through Monday.
Nashville's high temperature record today is 99 (1953); the forecast high today is 99. If we reach that, today would make 4 consecutive days of either breaking or tying the high temperature record.
Highs will remain around the same values through this weekend with warm overnight lows in the low to mid 70s west of the Plateau.
There is another very low chance for an isolated storm this afternoon, but as with similar days, most will remain dry.
As the ridge pulls west, a weak shortwave will be allowed to ride across the ridge tomorrow, bringing a higher chance for scattered afternoon thunderstorms mainly for areas along and east of I-65. Widespread severe weather is not anticipated, but a few strong to severe wind gusts could occur in the strongest storms given steep low-level lapse rates and DCAPE values over 1000 J/kg.
LONG TERM
(Saturday Night through next Friday) Issued at 1120 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026
The heat will stick with us through the start of next week.
A Heat Advisory remains in effect through Sunday for heat indicies of 105+.
A trough will move through Tuesday that will allow for better, more widespread rain and thunderstorm chances to return to the forecast.
The troughing pattern looks to remain in place through the week with long range guidance hinting at a strong upper low dipping down over the southeast.
Should this happen, we would finally see a pumpkin spice-esque change in our temperatures.
The NBM is also optimistic with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s by the end of next week and overnight lows in the upper 50s to low 60s....Yes, 50s and 60s!!
We'll continue to monitor 500mb long range trends and keep our fingers crossed that this pattern shift is on the way.