No Pumpkin Spice
Thursday, September 17, 2026 · 6:25 AM
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Updated at six twenty-five A.M. Central Daylight Time Thursday September seventeenth twenty twenty-six. Very hot and humid conditions with triple digit heat indices will continue. A Heat Advisory is in effect through Saturday for most of Middle Tennessee. Not as hot next week, but overall temperatures will stay above-normal for the foreseeable future. Low rain chances mainly for the Plateau this weekend. Low to medium rain chances area-wide early to mid next week. Yeah! Woo! Come on, baby! Step out on the porch tonight, feels like seventy-three Got a five hundred millibar ridge hanging over you and me Six thousand meters strong, pushing ninety-eight degrees You looking for a cool breeze, honey? You gotta talk to me, yeah! Heat index hitting one hundred and eight That cap is holding strong, so don't you make me wait Less than ten percent coverage on the radar screen We got the hottest scene that you have ever seen! Oh, the pressure's rising high, baby can't you tell? We're swinging through the valley in a six thousand meter shell! Whoa-oh! Yeah, the heat is paradise! Ain't no sweater season, no pumpkin spice! Out on the Cumberland Plateau, maybe pinhead showers fall But down in Middle Tennessee, we're taking it all Level four heat risk, baby, staying up all night Shift that ridge southwest, yeah, we're doing it right! Heat index hitting one hundred and eight That cap is holding strong, so don't you make me wait Less than ten percent coverage on the radar screen We got the hottest scene that you have ever seen! Oh, the pressure's rising high, baby can't you tell? We're swinging through the valley in a six thousand meter shell! Whoa-oh! Yeah, the heat is paradise! Ain't no sweater season, no pumpkin spice! Whoa-oh-oh! Above normal all week long, baby! We ain't cooling down for nobody! No pumpkin spice!
The forecast discussion
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 625 AM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026
- Very hot and humid conditions with triple digit heat indices will continue.
A Heat Advisory is in effect through Saturday for most of Middle Tennessee.
- Not as hot next week, but overall temperatures will stay above- normal for the foreseeable future.
- Low rain chances mainly for the Plateau this weekend.
Low to medium rain chances area-wide early to mid next week.
SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Saturday) Issued at 1048 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026
A major heat wave continues with a 6000+ meter H5 ridge centered over the TN Valley.
The center of the ridge will shift a little southwestward late this week, but the record heat will continue.
Highs each day will reach the mid to upper 90s west of the Plateau with a few spots topping 100. It will be humid, but it actually could be worse.
Heat index values will peak mostly in the lower 100s with spots of 105-108. Heat Risk levels will continue to reach level 3 and 4 out of 4. Overnight lows will cool to the lower 70s, except 60s Plateau.
Like we saw Wednesday, a few little "pinhead" showers may break through the cap each afternoon, but no meaningful rain is expected with coverage less than 10 percent through Saturday.
The Plateau has the best chance for isolated showers late this week.
LONG TERM
(Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 1048 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026
The heat headlines may need to be extended through Sunday, but the ridge is expected to weaken enough for heat levels to back off at least a few degrees by Monday and especially Tuesday.
The approach of a weak front from the north and low-level convergent flow from the southeast will create low to medium shower and storm chances across the area next week.
Unfortunately, no "pumpkin spice weather" is in sight with CPC extended outlooks showing above normal temperatures locked in place as we wrap up September.