The Problem Child
Sunday, September 13, 2026 · 6:13 AM
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Patchy fog over the Plateau this morning. Temperatures are forecast to remain well above seasonal norms. Heat index values in the one hundreds are expected every day through Thursday, mainly for areas west of the Cumberland Plateau. We may start to see a gradual cool-down next weekend, along with our next rain chances, but there is a great deal of uncertainty regarding specific timing. Rain chances vanish tomorrow. Localized dense fog east of Interstate sixty-five by daybreak. A couple tiny showers left on the Plateau... Radar clear in two hours. Dew points creeping right up to heat advisory criteria. Highs back into the middle and upper nineties by Tuesday. An amplified upper ridge building over the southeast. The Global Forecast System sweeps a front on Friday, but the European model holds the upper troffiness in place. Running out of shade, running out of time, Ten degrees above the seasonal line. Stagnant air hanging heavy and wild, This ridge is our problem child. We are trapped inside the middle of the week Searching for the break we cannot seek Sweat on the pavement running wild The problem child ONE HUNDRED DEGREES! WEST OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU! HEAT INDEX IN THE ONE HUNDREDS! NO RAIN TO SAVE US! Large upper troffing in seven to ten days... Could this be our first break? Maybe next weekend... Maybe.
The forecast discussion
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 610 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026
- Patchy fog over the Plateau this morning.
- Temperatures are forecast to remain well above seasonal norms.
Heat index values in the 100s are expected every day through Thursday, mainly for areas west of the Cumberland Plateau.
- We may start to see a gradual cool-down next weekend, along with our next rain chances, but there is a great deal of uncertainly regarding specific timing.
SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Monday Night) Issued at 1017 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026
I don't know about you, but I'm ready for fall.
Unfortunately, we've still got at least another week of this summer heat.
Even worse, rain chances are going to vanish tomorrow.
I might have some good news, but I'll save it for the end.
A couple tiny showers continue to plague the Plateau at forecast time.
Nothing heavy, but it might be a couple more hours before the radar is completely clear.
In any event, I still think patchy fog will start to develop around midnight.
I don't foresee it being too widespread, but areas east of I-65 might deal with some localized dense fog by daybreak.
Use caution as you head out in these areas Sunday morning.
As I said, rain chances are going to disappear tomorrow.
That's good if you have outdoors plans.
What's not good if you have outdoor plans is going to be the persistent heat and humidity.
Temperatures and heat index values should be similar to what we saw on Saturday.
This will also be the case on Monday with highs in the low 90s and heat index values west of the Cumberland Plateau in the low 100s.
LONG TERM
(Tuesday through next Sunday) Issued at 1017 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026
The middle of the week may be the problem child of this forecast.
Most, if not all, medium range guidance suggests a strong, amplified upper ridge developing over the southeast U.S. This will be the culprit in pushing afternoon highs back into the middle (and some upper) 90s Tuesday and Wednesday.
Dew points should be such that we'll be very close to Heat Advisory criteria both days.
By Thursday, the ridge will start to weaken and temperatures could be a touch cooler, but we'll run near 10 degrees above average through the middle of the week.
Friday should be the start of *some* relief.
Temperatures in our extended guidance are expected to back off to where they currently are and rain chances should return to the forecast.
Now, HOW they return is the question.
Latest GFS suggests a front sweeping through the region on Friday.
Euro has more upper level troughiness without a frontal passage.
Obviously there's plenty of details to work out here, but what each is showing is large upper troughing over the eastern half of the U.S. in the 7-10 day range.
Could this be our first break in the heat in quite some time?